Fireproof glass leading industry, strategic transformation HJT is expected to bring high growth company is the fireproof glass industry leader, the current products include fireproof glass system and explosion-proof glass system and so on. In recent years, under the influence of the decline of the industry boom and changes in management, the profit level fluctuates greatly. in April this year, the company's controlling shareholder has changed from no real controller to Oho Group, and the profit of 21Q1-3 company has been reversed by the end of the year. At the same time, the company began to implement strategic transformation this year, and announced in June that it would invest 832 million yuan in a new 1.2GW HJT battery and module project, which is expected to be put into production at the beginning of 2022. We believe that the company is expected to usher in Davis double-click, the first time to cover the "overweight" rating.
The essence of photovoltaic is LCOE, and the heterojunction is expected to lead the next generation of photovoltaic technology, the theoretical efficiency of PERC technology is 24.5%. At present, it has developed to a bottleneck, and the essence of photovoltaic lies in the cost of kilowatt-hour, so the industry seeks change and the technology continues to break through. There are two mainstream development directions in N-type batteries: the improved TOPcon technology based on PERC technology and the brand-new heterojunction technology. Due to the high sunk cost, the established leaders are more willing to upgrade TOPCon; in the short term. At the same time, in the new round of technological changes in the industry, new entrants have sufficient market space for the layout of the next generation photovoltaic technology heterojunction cells (HJT). Compared with TOPcon, HJT technology has the advantages of fewer process steps and clear cost reduction path, and has great potential in the future. According to Pvinfolink, the capacity of HJT battery will reach 42.3 GW by 2025, CAGR will be 57.4% in 2021-2025.
Using Mai as the latest equipment, the company's GW production line is about to produce.
The company announced in June that it will invest 832 million yuan to build a 1.2GW battery and module project, which uses half-wafer front process, 210large size, maximum single size, and the final component power exceeds 700W, which is the first GW full-line delivery of HJT equipment and the first order of HJT3.0 equipment in the world. At the same time, the HJT team has rich production experience in the photovoltaic industry to ensure the smooth progress of the project.
The latest progress: at present, the equipment has been put into commissioning, and we expect that next year, Q1 will start production capacity climbing, and the performance of the HJT project will be gradually released in the next three years. After reaching full production, it is estimated that the annual income will exceed 2 billion yuan and the net profit will be about 120 million yuan. At the same time, the company backed by the major shareholder Oho Group, Ouhao rapid layout of the new energy industry, announced the investment in the construction of 4.8GW heterojunction project this year, we believe that the follow-up investment and expansion of production will have the financial guarantee and strategic support of major shareholders. The supply of wafers is guaranteed: the company signed a 22-year procurement contract with Central to purchase no less than 70.1 million N-type G12 wafers (up to 74% of the demand for that year). At present, the corresponding battery power of 210wafers is about 10.1W, and the raw materials for shipping not less than 0.71GW and 1.2GW heterojunction capacity are fully guaranteed.
Investment suggestion: we believe that with the entry of the company's new management and the signing of a cooperation agreement between the traditional main fireproof glass and short, the profitability is expected to recover gradually, while the 1.2GW HJT project performance is expected to be gradually released next year. We believe that the company's performance will be more flexible in the next three years. To sum up, we estimate that in 2021-2023, the company's revenue will be 3.95 billion yuan, 10.32 billion yuan, and its net profit will be 0.02 billion yuan, 0.42 billion yuan, which will be covered for the first time and will be rated as "overweight".
Risk tips: the progress of photovoltaic installation is not as expected, the production expansion of HJT project is not as expected, the cost reduction of HJT technology is lower than expected, the price of silicon material is higher than expected, and there have been stock price changes in half a year.