Domestic drive motor leader, flat line motor production capacity to accelerate expansion. From micro-special motor to new energy motor, and then to integrated electric drive system, founder Motor has successfully transformed the new energy automobile industry. Since engaging in the new energy vehicle business in 2012, founder Motor's drive motor capacity has been gradually released. According to the company's announcement, the output of drive motors has reached 500000 in 2021, and flat-line motors have also begun to enter mass production. According to the company announcement, founder Motor has started a project to increase the annual production of 1 million drive motors, and it is expected that the sales revenue of the project will increase by 2.5 billion when the project reaches production. In the past two years, the company's performance declined due to the epidemic situation of COVID-19 and changes in the product structure of the industry. In 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles have increased steadily, and the demand for motors has gradually increased. Founder Motor, as a domestic mainstream motor supplier, has a strong recovery in performance and rapid revenue growth.
The space of the drive motor is broad, and the flat wire motor is the trend of the times. With the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales and the improvement of the number and power of bicycle motors, China's new energy vehicle drive motor market is expected to expand rapidly. We predict that in 2025, China's new energy vehicle drive motor market space is expected to reach 39.5 billion yuan, CAGR up to 72.67%. Compared with the traditional round wire motor, the flat wire motor has the advantages of high efficiency, high power density, good heat dissipation, good NVH performance, small weight and volume, which is more in line with the development direction of new energy motor. However, it puts forward higher requirements for motor enterprises in terms of technology, scale and capital, and further raises the threshold for entry into the flat-line motor industry. the market share of new energy motors is expected to continue to focus on enterprises with technical advantages, first-mover advantages and scale advantages.
Drive motor new growth point, the steady development of traditional business. 1) driving motor business: the company grasps the high growth of new energy market and the general trend of high power and miniaturization of new energy driven motors, actively arranges new technologies such as flat line motors, oil-cooled motors and 800V high voltage motors, and doubles the value of bicycles at the same time, customers also expand independently from the low-end of SAIC GM Wuling and Geely to new car-building forces and strong autonomy such as XPeng Inc., NIO Inc. and Great Wall. In the future, it is expected to rely on the advantages of technology and scale to expand more high-quality customers and open up new growth space. 2) traditional business: the performance of sewing motor is stable, the production line is transferred to Vietnam, and the profitability is expected to be improved; micro and special motors such as power tool motor and wiper motor continue to expand downstream customers, and the performance is expected to rise steadily. With the implementation of the national six emission standard for heavy diesel vehicles in July 2021, China's automobile standard has entered the national six era in an all-round way. According to the company's announcement, the company's forward-looking national six products have won orders and will continue to enter new mainframe factory customers in the future. automotive electronics business is expected to pick up at the bottom; benefiting from the strong demand for smart homes downstream and the accelerated concentration of the home appliance industry, intelligent controllers are expected to continue to grow.
Investment suggestion: from 2021 to 2023, we estimate that the company's operating income will be 17.25,27.95,4.751 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 0.20,1.75 and 319 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.04,0.35,0.64 yuan per share respectively. At present, the stock price corresponding to PE is 277.6, 32.2 and 17.6 times. The company is currently at the performance inflection point, the traditional business is rising steadily, the drive motor is expected to become a new growth point, covering for the first time, giving a "buy-A" rating, with a 6-month target price of 15 yuan per share.
Risk tips: new energy sales are less than expected risk; customer expansion is not as expected risk; flat line motor penetration is not as expected as expected risk; assumption is less than expected risk.
