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金科股份(000656)跟踪点评:西南区域的可能“剩者”

Jinke Co., Ltd. (000656) follow-up comments: possible "leftovers" in Southwest China

中信證券 ·  Dec 23, 2021 00:00

The successful financing of the domestic bond market has further alleviated the financial pressure on the company. The company has sold some of its shares in Jinke services to strategic investors, and is also accelerating the positive de-marketing of the stock market, which is ahead of similar private enterprises. Although the financial pressure is common in many companies, we believe that the company has the ability to gradually restore the main credit, and it is also possible to continue to cultivate the area and develop steadily.

The company has successfully achieved financing in the domestic bond market and further alleviated the financial pressure. According to the Shanghai Securities News, the company successfully issued ultra-short-term financing bonds with an amount of 800 million yuan and a coupon rate of 6.8%. We believe that in a generally tight financial environment, the smooth issuance of short-term financing bonds not only symbolizes the recognition of the company by domestic investors, but also effectively alleviates consumers' concerns about delivery. On the whole, the amount of the company's overseas debt is small, while the domestic debt is more likely to be borrowed and repaid. We believe that the company is one of the enterprises that have the ability to gradually restore the credit of the main body, although we also expect that the main financing cost of the company will increase compared with the history.

The company's sales are affected by the industry, but the value of goods is abundant, and there is expected to be a recovery at the beginning of 2022. In November 2021, the company achieved sales of about 12.6 billion yuan, with a sales area of about 1.44 million square meters, down 44.0% and 35.1% respectively from the same period last year. From January to November in 2021, the sales volume was about 174.2 billion yuan, and the sales area was about 1807 square meters, down 10.8% and 5.0% respectively. We believe that with the increase in mortgage lending and the stability of market expectations, the company's sales are expected to pick up in March 2022.

Increase cooperation and invigorate funds. The company transfers part of the equity of Jinke service to strategic investors, doing its best to increase the free cash flow within the company while ensuring the stability of the business. We believe that this pragmatic and market-oriented approach is also a prerequisite for companies to gain the trust of more and more investors.

If the company gives full play to the nature of ploughing Chongqing, it is expected to cope with the new market trend in the future. In history, the company has been ploughing Chongqing for many years, and has a lot of brand influence in the urban area and surrounding areas of Chongqing, while the whole southwest market is still the focus of the company. We believe that the national real estate market is moving towards localization and regionalization, the competitiveness of companies in unfamiliar cities may be limited, no matter the development experience or the cost of capital may not have an advantage. However, in the southwest region, especially in the Chongqing market, there are not many large local companies that can compete with the company. In the long run, although the company still faces the challenge of declining profitability, its development momentum may be higher if proper consideration is given to local ploughing.

Risk Tip: the downside risk of the company's profitability as a whole. There may be impairment risk in individual projects of the company.

Investment suggestions: the company should strengthen sales, smooth debt financing, invigorate the stock of securitized assets, and increase the free cash flow in the body. We look forward to the overall recovery of the company, maintain the company's 2021, 2022, EPS forecast of 1.50, 1.65, 1.87 yuan in 2023, maintain the target price of 7.50 yuan per share (corresponding to 5 times PE in 2021), and maintain the company's "buy" investment rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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