Topsports International Holdings Limited (06110.HK): retail and wholesale sales fell 20% from September to November compared with the same period last year.

中金公司 · Dec 22, 2021 00:00

公司近况

公司公布3QFY22 运营表现：零售及批发业务总销售金额同比下滑20%-30%低段，直营门店毛销售面积同比增加7.0%，较8 月底增加3.9%。

供应链短缺等因素致销售同比下滑，相比同业仍具有较强韧性。

3QFY22 公司零售（线下直营门店及线上渠道）及批发业务总销售金额同比下滑20%-30%低段，主要因合作伙伴供应链短缺、新冠疫情及短期事件影响（同期内，公司主力品牌之一Nike 大中华区收入同比下滑24%，宝胜国际综合经营收益净额同比下滑28%）。分渠道来看，线上渠道销售的增长弥补了线下销售的压力（滔搏双十一线上全平台销售同比增长约20%，O2O 销售同比增长约130%，位居全网运动鞋服零售商第一位）；线下渠道客流同比下滑，其中11 月份客流下滑约30%，较8 月降幅收窄，且收入下滑幅度低于客流下滑幅度。截至11月底，公司累计注册会员数达5,000 多万，较8 月底提升超过6%，其中会员销售额贡献超过95%，老会员复购贡献的收入超过70%。

库存水平持续良性，3-6 个月次新品占比提升。截至11 月底，公司6个月以内的库存占比超过70%，库存以受季节影响较弱的鞋类为主。

品牌方供应链短缺影响公司3 个月以内的新品到货，销售结构中3-6个月的次新品占比提升，导致公司3QFY22 折扣环比有所放大。公司管理层预计品牌供应链短缺影响或持续至1Q22。

大店战略持续推进，毛销售面积持续提升。公司继续推进存量店铺优化及新增店铺优选，截至11 月底，总店数较8 月底增长低单位数（店铺数量增加部分得益于与斯凯奇的战略合作），300 平米以上店铺占比继续提升，大店在坪效、折扣及经营效率方面较普通店铺更具优势。

大店战略带动毛销售面积同比提升7.0%，较8 月底提升3.9%。

2HFY22 面临高基数挑战，管理层指引维持全年毛利率水平。由于2020 年9 月至2021 年1 月销售同比中单位数增长，且2021 年2 月销售存在高基数，管理层预计公司下半财年收入增长压力将更显著。

同时也表示将与品牌方积极沟通，并指引维持全年毛利率水平。

估值与建议

维持FY22/23 EPS预期0.48/0.57 元不变，当前股价对应16/13 倍FY22e/23e P/E，维持跑赢行业评级。考虑港股运动板块估值下行，下调目标价11%至11.21 港元，对应17 倍FY23 P/E，有30%的上行空间。

风险

疫情反复持续，终端零售环境不及预期，主力品牌销售放缓及供应链短缺。

Recent situation of the company

The company reported 3QFY22 operating performance: total retail and wholesale sales fell 20 per cent year-on-year, while gross sales area of direct stores increased by 7.0 per cent year-on-year, up 3.9 per cent from the end of August.

Comment

Supply chain shortages and other factors led to a year-on-year decline in sales, compared with the industry is still more resilient.

The total sales volume of 3QFY22's retail (offline stores and online channels) and wholesale business fell 20%, 30% year-on-year, mainly due to the shortage of partner supply chain, COVID-19 epidemic and short-term events (during the same period, the revenue of Nike Greater China, one of the company's main brands, fell 24% compared with the same period last year, and the net comprehensive operating income of Baosheng International dropped 28% compared with the same period last year). From a sub-channel point of view, the growth of online channel sales makes up for the pressure of offline sales (Topsports International Holdings Limited's online full-platform sales increased by about 20% compared with the same period last year, ranking first among sports footwear retailers in the network). The passenger flow in offline channels declined year-on-year, including a decline of about 30% in November, narrowed compared with August, and the decline in revenue was lower than that in passenger flow. By the end of November, the total number of registered members of the company had reached more than 50 million, an increase of more than 6% compared with the end of August, of which the sales of members contributed more than 95%, and the income contributed by the repurchase of old members exceeded 70%.

The inventory level continued to be benign, and the proportion of new products increased in 3-6 months. By the end of November, the company's inventory within six months accounted for more than 70%, mainly footwear that were less affected by the season.

The shortage of brand supply chain affects the arrival of new products within 3 months, and the proportion of sub-new products in 3-6 months in the sales structure increases, which leads to the enlargement of the company's 3QFY22 discount. The management of the company expects that the shortage in the brand supply chain may last until 1Q22.

The strategy of big stores continues to advance, and the gross sales area continues to increase. The company continues to promote the optimization of stores in stock and the optimization of new stores. By the end of November, the number of total stores has increased by a lower number than that at the end of August (the increase in the number of stores is partly due to the strategic cooperation with Skage), and the proportion of shops with more than 300 square meters continues to rise. large stores have more advantages than ordinary stores in terms of flat efficiency, discounts and operational efficiency.

The big store strategy led to a 7.0% increase in gross sales area compared with the same period last year, an increase of 3.9% from the end of August.

2HFY22 faces the challenge of a high base, with management directing it to maintain its gross profit margin for the year. Due to the year-on-year increase in sales from September 2020 to January 2021 and the high base of sales in February 2021, management expects the company's revenue growth pressure to be more significant in the second half of the fiscal year.

At the same time, it also said that it will actively communicate with the brand and guide to maintain the annual gross profit margin.

Valuation and suggestion

Keep FY22/23 EPS expectation 0.48max 0.57 yuan unchanged, current share price corresponds to 16,000,000 times FY22e/23e Pamp E, maintain outperform industry rating. Taking into account the downward valuation of the Hong Kong sports sector, the target price was cut by 11 per cent to HK $11.21, corresponding to 17 times FY23 Pigub E, with 30 per cent upside room.

Risk

The epidemic continues repeatedly, the terminal retail environment is not as expected, the sales of main brands are slowing down and the supply chain is in short supply.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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滔搏(06110.HK)：9-11月零售及批发销售同比下滑20%-30%低段

Topsports International Holdings Limited (06110.HK): retail and wholesale sales fell 20% from September to November compared with the same period last year.

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