On December 20, most varieties of domestic futures fell in early trading, with Neng chemicals leading the decline. Low-sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil fell by more than 4%, liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, ethylene glycol, PTA, glue 20 fell by more than 3%. In terms of increase, manganese silicon rose by more than 3%, and coking coal by more than 2%.
The LPR of ITC Futures Review is lowered for one year and remains unchanged for five years.
After LPR landed. Loose expectations are still there, and the market still has expectations for subsequent cuts in MLF and OMO interest rates. Further downgrades of LPR and MLF in the first quarter of next year are not ruled out.
The LPR downgrade period is one year, which aims to reduce the cost of physical financing, while the five-year interest rate remains unchanged, indicating that it is a bottom line for real estate. The marginal relaxation is limited.
The LPR downgrade has a neutral impact on debt maturity and was expected to trade ahead of time last week. At present, with further loose expectations, the logic of asset misallocation is expected to continue to support the debt period and maintain an optimistic judgment on the debt period.
Institutional point of view: the overall supply and demand pattern of coking coal is good, with an increase of more than 5% at one point.
South China Futures believes that the supply and demand pattern of coking coal has improved significantly in the near future. although there was a drop in domestic coal supply last week due to the news of Australian coal clearance, this week's domestic coal supply has a greater impact, including Wuhai City, Inner Mongolia, which strictly forbids over-production of coal at night. Wuhai City's coking coal production capacity is about 35 million tons (excluding nuclear production); due to overproduction in Shanxi coal mines such as Jinneng Group, the production capacity is expected to be tightened in the later period. Luliang flooding accident, the market is still worried about the late security check tightened, power coal coking coal rose sharply on Friday. On the demand side, coke production has rebounded, coking profits have also re-stood at 100 yuan / ton, and independent coke enterprises have also begun to replenish the stock. In terms of imports, Australian coal is expected to have 2 million tons of customs clearance in the later period after customs clearance of 1.1 million tons, but it should be noted that the price of this part of Australian coal does not have an advantage. Mongolia coal due to the South African virus, customs clearance vehicles are limited to less than 100 vehicles, Mongolia 5 clean coal has increased significantly recently.
PVC continues to weaken in the off-season, and profits decline month-on-month.
At present, PVC operating rate remains high, production continues to increase, while downstream demand performance is subdued, overall demand weakens, which makes PVC spot fell sharply last week. And PVC traditional sales off-season and then cut the calcium carbide pick-up price, but the northwest Ningxia calcium carbide spot decline is not as large as PVC, so the theoretical PVC profit is lower than the previous month. (Longzhong Information)