The layout of new energy and new materials, the transformation of traditional energy begins a new journey. Maintain the "Buy" rating company to issue the outline of Development Strategy: on the basis of the existing industrial layout, determine the development direction of five industries: mining, high-end chemical materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, and intelligent logistics. The company has a clear plan for energy transformation in the future, and is expected to achieve quantitative increase in various industrial chains. As an A-share high-quality coal enterprise with the most international vision, the company is expected to achieve stable growth in performance. Considering that the outline project is in the planning stage, the performance contribution is not taken into account. We maintain our previous profit forecast and expect to achieve a net profit of 179.8 million yuan in 2021-2023, a year-on-year increase of 152.5% 12.4%, 2.1%, 4.15 and 4.23 yuan respectively, and the PE is 7.3, 6.5, 6.3 times the previous share price. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Mining business: the planning volume of the main coal industry has increased, and the diversified mining industry strives to reach 300 million tons of coal production in 5-10 years: 110 million tons of coal production in 2020, considering that the willingness of coal enterprises to build new production capacity in the future is not high. In the future, it will rely more on the form of asset injection. Shandong Energy Group, the current controlling shareholder, has a coal output of 300 million tons. Expand molybdenum, gold, copper, iron, potassium and other mineral areas: the metal mining industry is less affected by carbon neutralization, and sustained global economic growth will still bring stable demand. With the improvement of the benchmark price of the long-term Association (from 535 to 700 yuan / ton), coal prices have been high for a long time, and the profit per ton is expected to increase significantly.
Coal chemical business: developing towards high-end green and low carbon, and planning more output to strive for an annual output of more than 20 million tons of chemical products in 5-10 years, of which new chemical materials and high-end chemical products account for more than 70%: the current output of chemical products is less than 5 million tons, which is planned to increase threefold. Coal enterprises have obvious resource advantages in coal chemical industry, with high self-sufficiency rate of raw materials and low cost. At present, most of the company's products are intermediate products and bulk goods, such as methanol, ethylene glycol, acetic acid, ethyl acetate, etc., the future plan will extend the existing industrial chain to high value-added products, in addition, the volume will be increased through the new material base. Compared with the large refining and chemical enterprises in the petrochemical field, the whole industry chain has been basically realized, and the finished polymer has been obtained. in addition, it is also developing to high-end products, such as metallocene polyolefin, photovoltaic EVA and so on.
New energy business: layout scenery and other green power industry, and open the hydrogen energy race track to achieve more than 1000 kilowatts of new energy generation in 5-10 years, hydrogen supply capacity of more than 100000 tons / year: layout of wind power photovoltaic to achieve green power development, is the current policy direction, and the Central Economic work Conference pointed out that the new renewable energy is not included in the total energy consumption control. Relying on the existing industrial chain to achieve hydrogen production, the use of secondary hydrogen tail gas to enhance the added value of products, the future national hydrogen energy top-level planning is expected to become a national key area of development.
Risk hints: the economic recovery is not as expected, coal prices fall, exchange rate fluctuations, and the progress of new production capacity lags behind.