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芳源股份(688148)深度研究报告:高镍三元大时代 NCA前驱体领航者

Fangyuan Co., Ltd. (688148) In-depth research report: NCA precursor leader in the era of high nickel triyuan

華創證券 ·  Dec 19, 2021 00:00

The field of cathode materials has been deeply ploughed for nearly 20 years, and a moat of production and preparation technology has been built.

The company was founded in 2002, mainly engaged in lithium battery ternary cathode material precursor and nickel battery cathode material research and development, production and sales, the products are mainly used in lithium battery and nickel battery manufacturing, and finally used in new energy vehicle power batteries, power tools, energy storage devices and electronic products and other fields. Since its inception, the company has been committed to the research, development and production of battery cathode materials and upstream materials, mastering the "extraction without extraction of nickel" wet smelting technology, based on the comprehensive utilization technology of non-ferrous metal resources, modern separation technology and functional material preparation technology as the core, the production of NCA/NCM precursors and spherical nickel hydroxide, which is commonly used in high-end electric vehicles with leading technology in the field of NCA positive precursors.

The market space of ternary precursors is broad and there is a bright future.

Globally, with the increasing shipments of ternary cathode materials in recent years, the market demand for ternary precursors is also increasing. The global demand for ternary precursors is 334000 tons in 2019. It is estimated that by 2025, the global demand for ternary precursors will reach 1.48 million tons, with a compound growth rate of 28.2% from 2019 to 2025.

From the perspective of China, the domestic shipment of ternary precursors was 249000 tons in 2019, and it is estimated that by 2025, the domestic shipments of ternary precursors will reach 1 million tons, with a compound growth rate of 26.1 percent from 2019 to 2025.

The company's core competitive advantage is mainly reflected in the following four points:

1) Technical advantages: the company has formed an advanced modern separation technology system and mastered the preparation technology of functional materials based on coprecipitation technology. 2) Manufacturing advantages: the precursor products produced by the company have stable performance and high consistency, in which the content of magnetic metal foreign bodies can be stably controlled within 20ppb.

3) customer advantage: under the expectation of the arrival of the Biden stimulus policy, the US new energy vehicle market is expected to accelerate penetration. The company is deeply bound to Panasonic and enters the "Panasonic-Tesla, Inc." industry chain for many years, always adhering to the big customer strategy and concentrating resources to ensure the supply of high-quality customers. After the production capacity is put into operation, the company's proportion of Panasonic NCA supply is expected to increase gradually, with a certain incremental priority supply rights, and strengthen customer stickiness. 4) capacity advantage: accelerate the capacity expansion of NCA precursors, increase the layout of NCM precursors, eliminate single product risk and break through revenue bottlenecks.

Profit forecast: we estimate that the company's net return profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.05 / 376,651 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 0.20 EPS 0.74 plus 1.27 yuan, and corresponding to the current price PE of 16947 plus 27x. Considering that: 1) the new energy vehicle market in the United States may break out soon, the company's NCA business is deeply bound to the "Panasonic-Tesla, Inc." supply chain, and it is expected to further increase the NCA supply ratio with Tesla, Inc., with strong performance flexibility. 2) the company has certain advantages in production technology and resources in NCA/NCM production, and the NCM market development has achieved remarkable results, so with reference to the comparable company valuation, we give the company 35xPE in 2023 with a target price of 44.6 yuan, with a "strong push" rating for the first time.

Risk hint: the company's capacity expansion is not as expected; the global demand for high-nickel positive batteries is lower than expected; the industry competition intensifies and the price drops more than expected; large customers account for a high proportion of revenue, and new customer development is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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