Australian photovoltaic support faucet
The company takes photovoltaic support sales as the main direction, positioning middle and high-end customers and the market. Since its establishment in 2007, the company has successively developed markets such as Australia, Japan, China, Europe and Southeast Asia. The company has a market share of more than 50% in Australia, setting a record of the largest share of rooftop photovoltaic market in Australia for 11 years in a row. In the first half of 2021, the company achieved revenue of 520 million yuan (yoy+40.0%) and net profit of 35 million yuan (yoy+24.7%), of which photovoltaic support business revenue of 450 million yuan (yoy+63.6%), accounting for 86% of the support business. The company's main business income is mainly overseas, and the company's overseas income in 2020 is 580 million yuan, accounting for 65%.
At present, the company's main business can be divided into photovoltaic support and tracker production and sales (including distributed support, ground fixation and tracking), EPC engineering project and operation and maintenance of photovoltaic power station investment (self-supporting or commissioned development) three parts, among which the domestic EPC engineering project and household support business in photovoltaic support are expected to become the company's future growth engine.
The whole county to promote household development, to help companies open the domestic market of household photovoltaic is in the ascendant, policies to help continue to increase. In June 2021, the National Energy Administration issued a notice on submitting the pilot scheme of roof distributed photovoltaic development for the whole county (city and district) to promote the pilot county-wide distributed photovoltaic project throughout the country.
With the gradual landing of the project promoted by the whole county, the demand for household and distributed photovoltaic is gradually increasing. The newly installed 13.6GW for household use from January to October in 2021, of which October accounts for 51.5% of the total installed capacity of photovoltaic. It is estimated that in 2022, the newly installed scale of photovoltaic in China will be 60-75GW, the demand for household installation will be 30GW, and the corresponding market space for household photovoltaic brackets will be 6 billion yuan.
The household support has rich experience in sales management, and the cost can be controlled under the scale effect. The company has always been the leader of household photovoltaic support in the Australian market, with very rich experience in household photovoltaic power station solutions and channel operation management and after-sales service. Since last year, the company has seized the opportunity to vigorously develop the domestic household market, and shipments are expected to burst next year. The company's domestic household sales model is divided into self-development and agent system, the latter through the establishment of strategic cooperation with contractors, monthly shipments are relatively stable. The company controls the timing of raw material procurement by controlling stock in advance, so as to reduce costs and improve the company's profitability.
The joint venture company promotes the development of EPC business.
In November 2021, the company and Xiamen Jianfa jointly funded the establishment of Xiamen Jianfa Qingyuan New Energy Co., Ltd., forming a SASAC enterprise + photovoltaic enterprise cooperative development model. Relying on the resources around Xiamen, the company is expected to develop the existing county resources into a model city of Xiamen, so as to radiate Fujian Province and open up the market space of EPC business in the future.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the development of EPC business and household brackets in the domestic market next year. Taking into account exchange rate fluctuations this year, it is expected that the increase in financial costs will have a slight impact on the company's profits. From 2021 to 2023, the income of the forecast company is 9.9,19.2 and 2.62 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.18,0.39,0.53 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 81,37 and 28 times respectively, and is given a "recommended" investment rating.
Risk hint
The price of photovoltaic modules is too high, the landing of the whole county is not up to expectations, changes in international relations, and so on.