XPeng Inc.: the leader of the new forces that continue to evolve. The company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 12.432 billion yuan, an increase of 315.38% over the same period last year, with a gross profit margin of 12.86%. Compared with 2020, the company increased its 36.91pct and delivered 56404 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 345.42%. Among them, the gross profit margin in the third quarter was 14.35%, benefiting from the rapid rise in sales, the month-on-month growth of 2.42pct. The company won the crown of the new power for the first time in October, and continued to evolve with the advantage of being the first to switch iron-lithium models plus intelligence.
P5 is expected to pry 10-200000 yuan potential market, G9 explore brand positioning. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the annual sales of 10 million to 200000 yuan passenger cars in China in 2020, and the penetration rate of 100-200,000 yuan new energy passenger vehicles reached 8.5% in the first three quarters of 2021. Compared with the increase in 3.3pct in 2020, there is greater potential for permeability improvement compared with the other two price segments. According to the company's website, XPeng Inc. P5 has been delivered since 2021Q4, with a starting price of 157900 yuan after subsidy. It is the first mass-produced car model equipped with lidar in the world. XPILOT3.5 intelligent driving system to achieve urban NGP, coupled with rich intelligent cockpit experience, XPeng Inc. P5 in 2022 domestic 10-250000 yuan market has a strong competitive advantage, is expected to replicate P7 sales success. According to the company's Q3 earnings call, it is expected that the G9 delivered by 2022Q3 is expected to explore product positioning to improve brand value.
Full stack self-research technology, leading the wave of intelligence. With its high R & D investment beyond its peers, the company has gradually established technical advantages in data collection, algorithm iteration and function update, realizing full-stack technology self-research. SEPA covers intelligent driving, cockpit and EE architecture, and NGP combines in-depth optimization of domestic road conditions to lead the intelligent tide, while further improving the revenue of software subscription services.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021-2023 will be 178.31 billion yuan, 355.33 billion yuan, 72.735 billion yuan, and the company will focus on the advantages of intelligence of new car companies at home and abroad, and its monthly sales have reached the leading level of new forces in China. A certain valuation premium will be given, that is, 9 times PS in 2022, calculated on the basis of HK $/ USD / RMB0.82 / ADS, corresponding to a reasonable value of HK $228.95 / share and US $58.63 / ADS. Give H shares and US stocks a "buy" rating.
Risk tips. The sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; the supply of raw materials is lower than expected.