Event: Yanzhou Mining Energy issued an agreement on the board of directors, proposing that the company should determine the development direction of mining, high-end chemical materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing and intelligent logistics on the basis of the existing industrial layout. and set relevant goals for each industry direction.
The target of coal production is 300 million tons per year, at the same time, the development of non-ferrous metal mining, asset injection is expected to increase. In the mining industry, the company plans to reach coal production capacity of 300 million tons per year in 5-10 years and 120 million tons of commercial coal in 2020. At present, the company only has Wanfu Coal Mine (1.8 million tons / year) to be put into production, and the endogenous growth is relatively limited. It is expected that the company will seek epitaxial acquisition to achieve expansion in the later stage. In 2021, the company controls Yanzhou Mining Group and Shandong Energy Group to complete the restructuring, the new group has a coal production capacity of 350 million tons per year, under this goal, the expectation of asset injection has been raised. At the same time, the company expands to non-ferrous metal mining, and can also enter the high-end manufacturing industry through the supply of upstream raw materials, which is consistent with the goal of high-end equipment manufacturing.
High-end chemical materials continue to make efforts to comply with the policy guidance. The company is one of the few coal enterprises to participate in modern coal chemical industry, from the initial coal-to-methanol through self-construction and acquisition to coal-to-ethylene glycol, coal-to-acetic acid / ethyl acetate and so on, and profitability can be the leader of the industry (Hualu Hengsheng). At present, the company's output of coal chemical products is about 6 million tons per year, which is still far from the target of 20 million tons. The recent Central Economic work Conference proposed that the use of raw material energy should not be included in the control of total energy consumption, and that the use of coal as raw material and fuel should be effectively distinguished, so that the policy bottleneck in the development of the coal chemical industry can be eliminated, and the company can also take advantage of this opportunity to vigorously develop the business.
Based on the existing advantages to expand hydrogen energy, wind power and photovoltaic have great potential. At present, hydrogen production from coal chemical industry is more mature, and it is expected that the development of the company will focus on the linkage with the middle and lower reaches, such as storage, transportation, use and so on. The company is currently enjoying the high prosperity of the industry, with abundant cash flow (35 billion cash on the account and 19 billion of operating cash flow in the first three quarters of 2021), which has a large choice for the transformation of low-carbon industries on the basis of ensuring dividends.
Give a "highly recommended-A" investment rating. The peak season of the coal market is not prosperous, next year's price center downward has become a market consensus, but coal prices are high, especially the long Association price increases to stabilize the profits of coal enterprises at a high level. Reviewing the market of coal stocks from 2009 to 2021, the current macro environment is loose inside and tight outside, similar to the situation in 2014, but the prosperity of the industry is downward, so the traditional periodic stocks follow the logic of upward commodity prices. At that time, most of the leading companies were the targets of industrial transformation, corresponding to similar external macro conditions in 2022, but the degree of industry prosperity was significantly better than that time, coal enterprises had better cash flow as the support for industrial transformation, focusing on the transformation of new energy, coal chemical targets. We estimate that the EPS of the company in 2021-2023 will be 3.45 yuan per share, with a year-on-year growth rate of 120% /-22% and 14%, with an investment rating of "highly recommended-A".
Risk hints: coal prices have fallen sharply, the epidemic has spread more than expected, imports have increased significantly, the goal of transformation is 5-10 years, and the direction may change or progress is lower than expected.