On December 16, most domestic futures closed up, with coking coal up nearly 5%, asphalt up more than 4%, fuel and urea up more than 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil, iron ore, hot roll, methanol, cotton yarn, thread, and soda ash up more than 2%. Starch and manganese silicon fell by more than 1%.

　　National Development and Reform Commission: guide the coal market price to operate within a reasonable range

Recently, the Price Department of our commission went to coal and power enterprises to carry out special research, held a forum of coal and power enterprises, extensively listened to the opinions and suggestions of enterprises, and studied and improved the price formation mechanism of the coal market. With regard to the specific situation of the survey, in the survey, the participating enterprises generally said

There is a relatively stable production and marketing relationship between coal and coal power industry. from the law of market operation for many years, there is a reasonable range of coal price objectively. When the coal price runs in a reasonable range, coal production, circulation and consumption can remain basically stable, and the upstream and downstream industries of coal and power can achieve better coordinated development.

It is hoped that the state will study and introduce relevant policies as soon as possible, comprehensively adopt market-oriented and legal measures, guide coal prices to operate within a reasonable range, and promote the effective linkage of coal and electricity prices through marketization. In addition to special research, recently, our committee has also organized and held many symposiums attended by coal and power enterprises, coal enterprises, industry associations, power users, and so on, to fully listen to the opinions and suggestions of all sectors of society on improving the price formation mechanism of the coal market.

　　Comments on the data of Mysteel weekly rebar

South China futures analysis believes that today's downstream steel data, the rebar table needs to decline, but the steel plate and the secondary market performance is strong, the market is optimistic about the black plate in the later period. There is no great change in iron ore supply and demand, and the overall weak reality and strong expectations. Bulls dominate strong expectations, while bears dominate weak reality. At present, the fundamentals of iron ore are still very poor and port inventories are high, but compared with the high inventories in 2018 (high Australian ore inventories and low Brazilian ore inventories), the current inventory structure is relatively moderate, with high silicon Brazilian powder inventories being extremely high. medium-and high-grade Australian ore stocks are relatively neutral, so at least in terms of inventory structure, they are less pessimistic. The visual multi-air shock is unknown, the black plate is mainly under the multi-empty intertwined shock, but there may be a new trend in the second half of December. The author thinks that iron ore can still be treated as empty matching, or buy straddle on options.

Qiu Yuecheng, director of black research at Everbright Futures, said that thread production fell 21.66% year-on-year this week, and table demand fell 17.01% year-on-year. Although the drop in table demand was large, it was lower than the year-on-year decline in production in recent four weeks, indicating an improvement in market supply and demand. Recent macro policy warm wind blowing frequently, November real estate sub-index data also showed month-on-month improvement, a strong boost to market sentiment. However, in the future, there is still a large weakening pressure on demand, and there is some room for resumption of production in supply. It is expected that the high vibration of the short-term thread disk will be the main one.

　　Guotai Junan Futures comments on Asphalt soaring

Huang Liunan, senior researcher of Guotai Junan Futures Energy and Chemical Industry, said that today, the main contract of BU2206 has strengthened sharply, rising more than 4% in intraday trading, which is significantly stronger than crude oil. This round of surge is mainly due to the current asphalt inventory has fallen to a previous low, the market is optimistic about the demand for winter reserves.

In addition, the recent East China market some terminal projects rush, refinery shipments are good, spot prices have been raised, fundamentals improve to effectively promote the strength of BU. From the cost point of view, oil prices strengthened slightly last night, maintaining a volatile market as a whole.

Taking into account the recent continued strong overseas natural gas prices and good winter energy demand in the northern hemisphere, oil prices may continue to recover in December as long as the epidemic is under control. Under the condition that the cost end support is OK and the rigid demand in the south is stable, with the gradual release of the subsequent winter storage demand, BU may maintain a strong operation in the short term, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the winter storage situation.