The company issued the Strategic Development outline, which plans to focus on five industrial directions in the next five to 10 years, including the large-scale expansion of the existing business sector and the transformation to the new energy field, bringing new expectations for the company's growth. The company's performance has improved significantly this year. According to the dividend rate promised in the previous period, the dividend yield corresponding to the current price is more than 7.5%. We are optimistic about the undervaluation of the company, the value attributes of high dividends and future growth expectations, and maintain the company's "buy" rating.

The new strategic planning has clear objectives, and the stock business is expected to double its growth. On December 7, 2021, the company changed its name from "Yanzhou Coal" to "Yanzhou Energy". On December 15, the company announced a new "Strategic Development outline". It is planned to focus on the development of mining, high-end chemical materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing and intelligent logistics in the next 5-10 years, among which mining and high-end chemical materials belong to the extension of the company's traditional business. In the mining field, it is planned to focus on the development of mining, high-end chemical materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing and intelligent logistics. The company's goal is to strive to achieve a coal output of 300 million tons per year in the next 10 years, and to build more than 8 green intelligent mines of more than 10 million tons. Expand the fields of molybdenum, gold, copper, iron, potassium and other minerals to realize the transformation from single coal mining to multi-mineral development (the company has six potash mining rights in Canada, and according to the 2021 mid-term report, the feasibility study of the project has been completed. There is no specific development plan).

In the chemical industry, we will strive to produce more than 20 million tons of chemical products in the year 5-10, of which new materials and high-end chemical products account for more than 70%. The company will achieve a coal output of 120 million tons in 2020, and if the planned production capacity of 300 million tons is completed and landed, the coal output will increase by 1.5 times (corresponding to the 10-year CAGR of 9.6%). If the company plans to land in the future, the chemical production will increase by 3.4 times (corresponding to the 10-year CAGR of 15.9%). According to the current profit level, it is estimated that the long-term profit level of the company's planned coal production capacity of 300 million tons can be maintained at 40 billion yuan, and the long-term profit level of the chemical industry's planned production capacity of 20 million tons may be at 13 billion yuan. According to the comparable company's 8000,000 10 times Phammer E level, if the company is planned to land, it is estimated that the company's long-term reasonable market value can be in 400 million 500 billion yuan.

Positive transformation, emerging industry planning is also expected to raise valuations. In addition to the traditional coal and chemical business, the company plans to promote new energy projects such as wind power, photovoltaic and supporting energy storage in the field of new energy, and strive to install new energy with a scale of more than 10GW in 5-10 years (according to the assumption that a single GW corresponds to 2 billion of the market capitalization, the new energy power generation sector can contribute 20 billion yuan to the market capitalization). Hydrogen production capacity is more than 100,000 tons per year (according to the price assumption of 35 yuan / kg in the future and the current common cost of hydrogen production from chemical by-products, the profit is expected to reach 600 million yuan, 15 times Pmax E, corresponding to a market capitalization of about 9 billion yuan). Judging from the quantitative targets currently disclosed by the company, the corresponding market value of new energy planning can reach 29 billion to 30 billion yuan. In the field of high-end equipment manufacturing, focus on the development of traditional superior products such as high-end coal machinery manufacturing, expand the manufacture of new energy equipment such as fans, and cultivate a series of mid-and high-end products.

In addition, the plan also proposes to build an intelligent logistics system. The above new energy plan is expected to add to the company's market capitalization expectations in the future.

Risk factors: fluctuations in coal prices and costs affect the company's performance expectations; there are objective obstacles such as resource constraints in the landing of planning objectives, and the progress may be lower than expected.

Investment suggestion: considering the coal price forecast for next year, we maintain the company's 2021 EPS3.71 forecast and raise the company's 2022-2023 EPS forecast to 3.47 yuan (2.81 yuan for the original forecast). The current price is 24.42 yuan, corresponding to 2021-2023 P/E6.6/7.0/6.8x. Taking into account the current industry average valuation level and the growth expectations brought about by the new plan, we give the company a 2022 P/E10x with a list price of 35 yuan for A shares and HK $21 for H shares according to the historical discount. According to the 50% dividend commitment of the company, the dividend yield of A shares / H shares of the company is expected to be 7.6% / 15.9% respectively under the expected performance in 2021, which shows obvious value attractiveness and maintains the company's "buy" rating.