Tavern industry: the economy tavern subverts the tradition, and the first-mover advantage is that the high-end heavy asset model used to be the main mode in the current round of reform, while the economy pub excavates the social demand at affordable prices and subverts the traditional model to make up for the gap in supply. The core of the economical pub is to continuously transform the first-mover advantage into scale advantage, competing in Haifoli (2013 / 20) / Perry's (2012 / 54), Helens (founded in 2009,709) has outstanding first-mover position and scale advantage.

If the market size of Japanese wine houses is more than 35 billion yuan in 2020, CR5=54%, can enjoy the double dividend of industry growth and concentration if it is a target economy pub.

Helen Division: the exhibition store is accelerated at the beginning of the potential energy, and the business toughness is stronger under the normalization of the epidemic situation. The model has strong profitability. In 2019, the operating profit margin Helens (29%) > Taier (24%) >

Haidilao International Holding (17%) > 99 Maojiu (16%), IPO funds in place + brand potential improvement, strong certainty of short-term expansion; forward-looking industry understanding of management team, high maturity of internal organization system (employee training / operation mode) helps expansion. Under the normalization of the epidemic, Helens stores are evenly distributed & increase the low-line layout (low cost pressure / flexible epidemic prevention policy), and the business toughness is expected to be stronger.

Growth prospects: standardized expansion and private product strategy are double main lines 1, scale expansion: from the perspective of business district, population / GDP, the report estimates that the upper limit of Helens store space is about 2700-3000, and there is still three times the space by 2025. 2. Private brand strategy:

The core of Helen's business is not high-quality drinks, but revenue from selling social scenes. 2021H1's own drinks have a gross profit margin of 82% > tripartite drinks 54%. The optimization of product structure has led to an increase in profit margins.

Review of valuation: brands tend to enjoy valuation premium during the period of high potential.

Helen Division: since listing, it has been disturbed by the double impact of the epidemic & the downward adjustment of store opening expectations, and the stock price has withdrawn by up to 33%. At present, under the acceleration of store opening / same-store recovery, double-click recovery is worth looking forward to; industry review: Haidilao International Holding / Jiumaojiu relies on the beautiful performance of its own same store / store, the stage has enjoyed a valuation premium (Haidilao International Holding about 70x/ about 65x), high-power brands often enjoy a high premium.

Risk tips: the epidemic affects the decline of the same store, the opening of stores is lower than expected, and the competition in the industry intensifies.

Investment suggestion: preliminary verification of single-store model and exhibition store climbing period, maintain "buy" rating forecast company for 21-23 years EPS is-0.01 EPS 0.42 / 0.75 yuan, 22-23 corresponding to PE 37max 21x, single-store model has been preliminarily verified and in the exhibition store climbing period, and the epidemic normalization under the economic model toughness, can choose consumer plate post-epidemic era certainty higher target, maintain the buy rating.