CITIC: incremental fund relay, blue chip market continues

CITIC believes that the central policy setting for steady growth and future policies will promote the economic recovery to exceed expectations, intensive policy landing and data disclosure will significantly boost market confidence, ample market liquidity will support incremental capital relay, and the New year blue chip market dominated by institutional funds is expected to continue for several months.

First of all, the policy setting of the Central Economic work Conference clearly defines and stabilizes growth in order to cope with the superposition of the "triple pressure" of economic operation; structural policies will be rebalanced and pay more attention to the coordination of short-term pressure and medium-term goals; at the same time, policies will put more emphasis on implementation, and future policy synergies are expected to promote economic recovery beyond expectations. Second, the gradual disclosure of economic data shows that the economic growth in the fourth quarter is more resilient, at the same time, policies to ease real estate anxiety, monetary policy intensive landing, the follow-up credit repair will continue for several quarters, the market risk appetite will continue to improve. Finally, macro liquidity is still abundant, market liquidity is extremely abundant, RMB assets are still relatively attractive, northward funds will maintain a sustained net inflow, domestic institutions and the reallocation of financial funds for the New year will form an incremental fund relay, and drive the stock funds to adjust their positions, and the market consensus on low blue chips will be further strengthened.

The high-low switch in the market structure will continue, and it is still recommended to firmly focus on the "three low" layout and grasp the New year blue-chip market that lasts for several months. Focus on: 1) varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be still low, pay attention to the mid-stream manufacturing suppressed by cost and supply chain problems, such as small household appliances, auto parts, power equipment, etc., gradually increase the valuation to return to a reasonable range of some consumer and pharmaceutical industries, such as liquor, food, duty-free, medical equipment, vaccines, etc. 2) varieties whose valuations are still relatively low, pay attention to high-quality developers and building materials enterprises after the expected slow release of real estate credit risk, and the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of China-listed stocks; 3) high-boom varieties whose adjusted stock prices are relatively low, such as semiconductor equipment, special chip devices and military industry driven by domestic logic.

Guotai Junan Securities: reducing economic uncertainty, helping to boost the New year's market

Guotai Junan Securities believes that looking forward to the future, economic uncertainty will be reduced, leading to the decline of risk assessment and the rise of risk appetite will become the core driver: on the one hand, the 2021 Economic work Conference pointed out that the current economy is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations, and steady growth has become the primary goal of economic work. With the strengthening of fiscal policy expenditure, the pace of pre-pace, the stability of monetary policy is wide, superimposed structural industrial policy endogenous force, economic downside pessimistic expectations are expected to ease. On the other hand, a series of important issues such as "correct understanding" of double control of energy consumption and carbon neutralization, positive role of capital and barbaric growth are emphasized, which effectively reduce the uncertainty of market concerns from the perspective of policy correction. Based on the above, we believe that with the core contradictions gradually clear, profit decline is expected to gradually repair, sub-mother-side efforts to boost the New year market, please climb another high-rise.

The virtuous circle of real estate and the activation of financial value. The current real estate problem is the biggest resistance to the start of the financial sector, but recently, with the gradual improvement of real estate risk expectations, the undervalued financial direction represented by brokers has high allocation value. The repair power of consumption should not be underestimated. Behind the weak recovery signal of consumption lies the recovery of mass consumption and the resilience of the real estate chain, including 4.9% in October compared with the same month last year, up 0.4% from the previous month, which is higher than market expectations as a whole. Looking back, the consumer market is opened by the main line of price increases, and with the higher-than-expected resilience of the demand side, the consumer market will spread.

Economic uncertainty has decreased, risk assessment has declined, and risk appetite has risen, helping to boost the market for the New year. With the convening of important meetings, the core marginal sword of policy is to stabilize the economy. according to the order of steady growth and the revision of pessimistic expectations, we recommend: 1) consumption: accelerating the bottom of expectations, recommended performance is supported and negative expectations are diluted in the direction of spirits, pigs, household appliances, furniture and social services / tourism; 2) Finance: brokerages, banks; 3) Technology Manufacturing: consumer Electronics and Semiconductors 4) New energy: photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other high prosperity direction.

China International Capital Corporation: the main line of "steady growth" will continue

China International Capital Corporation said that the core change in the market this week is the strengthening of expectations of stable policy growth, and market performance continues to evolve around this main line. The Central Economic work Conference continued the spirit of the previous meeting of the political Bureau, emphasizing that we should continue to do a good job in the work of "six stability" and "six guarantees" and that economic work next year should be stable and strive for progress in the midst of stability.

Looking forward, China International Capital Corporation believes that it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the "reversal" of the global economic cycle and the new changes in the epidemic situation. China's capital market is currently in a more favorable environment than the world, and "steady growth" is expected to be strengthened. pay attention to the progress of countercyclical policy regulation in the future. In terms of style, with the possible launch of social finance credit, financial planning and deployment, China International Capital Corporation believes that the main line of "steady growth" will continue. Since the beginning of the year, the relatively strong part of the manufacturing growth style may be relatively backward for the time being, and the market style may temporarily show a "big strong and small weak" pattern.

Industry configuration suggestion: the configuration continues to tilt to the policy expectation and the middle and lower reaches. Specifically focus on three directions: 1) marginal policy changes or areas of potential support, including industrial chains related to stable demand for real estate (home appliances, home furnishings, building materials, real estate, etc.), potential consumer support areas, securities firms, etc. 2) consumption in the middle and lower reaches, which has been adjusted this year, the valuation is no longer high, and the medium-and long-term prospects are still clear, choosing stocks from the bottom up, including food and beverage, medicine, home appliances, light industry, automobiles and spare parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, etc. 3) it may be restrained in the short term, pay attention to the manufacturing direction of high prosperity in the medium term, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, and choose stocks according to the changes in the prosperity of the industrial chain. Special attention is paid to the manufacturing opportunities of power transmission and distribution upgrading, auto parts and other links.

Haitong: it is expected that the value in 2022 and the market will be slightly superior.

Haitong believes that style is divided into value, growth, market and small market. Since 2007, the market capitalization style effect of US stocks has been weakened, and the growth style has been dominant. The change in style stems from a comparative change in profit growth. Economic growth has shifted from speed to quality, industry concentration has increased, and the law of rotation of market capitalization has been weakened. In the past, the bull market usually grew and the small market dominated. It is expected that the 22-year value, the market is slightly superior, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is stronger than the CSI 500.

Taken together, Haitong believes that the A-share market may usher in rest and recuperation next year under the dual pressure of interest rate restrictions on valuation and earnings. Historically, the market and value are often a better choice in such a market environment. At the same time, combined with the relative valuation of the style, we think that the market capitalization style next year is expected to continue the trend of 16 years, that is, the market is slightly better. In terms of growth value style, in terms of time, the dominant growth cycle lasts for three years, and the future growth style may continue, but considering that the valuation premium of current growth relative to value is already more obvious, next year's style is expected to return slightly to value, similar to the overall dominance of growth in the mid-2009-15 period, but the style also shifted to value in 2011.

Societe Generale Securities: continuous interpretation of the New year's market, economic workersTo promote the four main lines of the meeting.

Societe Generale Securities believes that the New year market has begun. Broad currency at the same time, the periodic marginal "wide credit" is expected to rise, continue to promote the size of the resonance index market. The Economic work Conference promotes the four main lines of the New year market:1) pay attention to the brokerage, which is an important carrier for the interpretation of the New year market.The meeting proposed the "full implementation of the stock issue registration system", with reference to the normalization of IPO in recent years, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities firms. At the same time, with the continuous interpretation of the New year's market, as a plate with strong linkage with the market market, the β attributes of securities firms will also be fully interpreted and released.2) New and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors that benefit from stable growth expectations and are repaired by low valuations.On the one hand, the Economic work Conference stressed that "cross-cyclical and countercyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined" and called for "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment" and "promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing". On the other hand, the meeting called for the coordination and linkage of fiscal policy and monetary policy, and further easing of money and credit is expected to bring about valuation repairs in infrastructure, real estate and other sectors.3) double carbon related new energy and coal plate.The meeting called for a correct understanding and grasp of carbon neutralization, setting the tone of "double carbon" first and then breaking it, and proposing the transformation from "promoting the optimal combination of coal and new energy" and "double control" of energy consumption to "double control" of total carbon emissions and intensity. On the one hand, policies such as "new renewable energy and raw material energy use are not included in the total energy consumption control" are expected to continue to accelerate the construction of new energy field. On the other hand, "based on coal-based basic national conditions" will also drive the coal plate valuation repair.4) the growth plate of science and technology represented by "small high-tech".The meeting called for stimulating the emergence of a large number of "specialized and innovative" enterprises and increasing support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation, and green development. At the same time, the macro environment has entered the stage of "broad currency and stable credit", and the market style will further favor science and technology with high prosperity and high growth. In the medium and long term, scientific and technological innovation is the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under the policy of common prosperity. What's more, it is the most distinct main line of the times to get rid of the predicament of "sticking neck" under the background of Sino-American game.

Investment strategy: the New year market continues to deduce, grasp the four main lines to actively participate. In the long run, we will focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technologies (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, robots, advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.) 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).

Minsheng Securities: 2022 is worth looking forward to, forecasting the expected return of Shanghai Composite Index 14.9%

Minsheng Securities said that due to the high dividend rate in 2021, the ROE of all A shares in 2022 will continue to rise while earnings growth slows to 6.5 per cent, which is expected to break through the long-term trend. After the credit tightening and valuation compression in 2021, as the policy turns loose, the rebound in demand will resonate with the economic transformation, and the expected yield of the Shanghai Composite Index will reach 14.9% in 2022. However, it should be emphasized that the real opportunity for A-shares is not the current "New year market". The expectation of overseas interest rate hikes and the fragility of the trading structure make the current more structural-oriented, and the full-year and comprehensive market in 2022 is more to look forward to.

Since 2021, a large number of cyclical industries ROE and ROIC have broken through their long-term downward trend and will continue in 2022. This phenomenon has appeared in the traditional industries represented by spirits after 2016. the future recovery in demand will be more easily accepted by market investors than simple supply contraction, the value of production capacity in traditional industries will be revalued, and cyclical stocks will outperform commodities. In the emerging industry, the main direction is around the new energy generation side, power infrastructure, carbon reduction in traditional industries and automobile intelligence. There are three main lines in the industry: (1) traditional industry configuration: iron and steel, banks, securities firms, non-ferrous metals (copper, gold, aluminum), coal, crude oil chain (oil service engineering, oil transportation), building materials; (2) new energy generation side (photovoltaic modules, power operators), power infrastructure (wires and cables, smart grid), smart cars and carbon reduction in traditional industries (3) Rural revitalization will become the most important new growth clue (agricultural machinery, seed industry, environmental protection, county consumption) after 2022.

Huaxi Securities: the policy is "stable" and the market continues in the New year.

Huaxi Securities said that "stability" is the key word of the Central Economic work Conference. Under the background of the raging global epidemic and multiple pressures on the domestic economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, appropriately put their efforts in the forefront, iron out the economic fluctuations before the 20th CPC National Congress, and keep the economy running within a reasonable range. In the vacuum period of the current corporate earnings data, "liquidity easing + stable growth policy" has become the driving force for A-shares to interpret the "New year market". Follow-up counter-cyclical, cross-cyclical policies to prop up the economy, while market risk appetite is expected to rise. Maintain our long-held bullish view on A shares, and the structural market of A shares continues. In December alone, A shares are expected to continue the New year market, the plate / stocks do not chase high do not kill down.

Specific to the industry configuration, there are three main investment lines: 1) new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaic, etc.); 2) consumption upgrading related, food and beverage, medicine, etc.; 3) benefiting from the marginal change of real estate policy due to urban policy, the "real estate" sector, individual stocks focus on the central enterprises with increased market share. Theme investment concerns: "dual carbon, military industry, consumption upgrading" and so on.

Guosheng Securities: set up first and then break, internal and external resonance, steady growth leads the Beta market for the New year

Guosheng Securities believes that this week, the domestic capital market ushered in a simultaneous rise in stocks, debt, and foreign exchange. Judging from the driving factors behind it, on the one hand, the demand for stable growth has been strengthened, while broad credit expectations have risen, monetary easing has taken the lead; on the other hand, the uncertainty of the external epidemic has risen, Sino-US relations have slowed down, promoting the appreciation of the RMB, and the pace of foreign investment has also been significantly accelerated.

The six effects of the Central Economic work Conference on the stock market are as follows: 1. The economy is stable and the process of entity "deleveraging" has come to an end. The core of the macro so far this year is: external higher-than-expected, internal deleveraging, with the credit pulse bottoming out in October, the process of deleveraging in the physical sector has basically come to an end, and there is a high probability of moderate "deleveraging" next year. 2. Credit is from stable to wide. Compared with the 730 Politburo meeting, the certainty of wide credit is increasing. After the third quarter, the credit environment gradually changed from tight to stable, more affected by special debts and financial rhythm; looking backward, driven by financial preposition, real estate correction, and direct credit tools, the certainty of wide credit has been further enhanced, and credit conditions are expected to stabilize in a real sense by the end of the year. 3. Whether the growth target reaches 5.5 or not, traditional economic efforts such as infrastructure and real estate are needed. Considering the compound two-year growth rate of only 4.9% in the third quarter of 21, and further downward pressure in the fourth quarter, the need for traditional economies such as infrastructure and real estate has increased. And high-frequency data point to the demand data related to infrastructure real estate have recently shown stabilizing signals, looking back on the traditional economy should not be overly pessimistic. 4, carbon neutralization first set up and then broken, double carbon bid farewell to "across the board", to ensure the continuation of the tone of stable price. Energy consumption policy is more flexible, double carbon bid farewell to "one size fits all". On the other hand, the high energy-consuming enterprises dominated by green energy will no longer be excessively subject to the "energy consumption" index per unit output, and the green power sector will usher in clarity. 5. At the end of industrial policy, pay attention to regional balance, monopoly industry reform and agricultural security. Next year, market competitive business in monopoly areas such as power grids, telecommunications, railways, oil and natural gas is expected to be accelerated; at the same time, attention will be paid to the allocation opportunities of seed industry, agricultural machinery and other related industries. 6. the reform of the registration system has been rolled out in an all-round way, and the importance of financing in the equity market has been further enhanced. The logic of A-share long-term funds entering the market has changed. After the implementation of the real estate tax, residents' funds entering the market with the help of institutions will still be the main increment of the stock market, and public offering plus private placement is expected to contribute more than 1.5 trillion of the incremental funds next year.

First set up and then break, internal and external resonance, steady growth leads the beta market for the New year. (1) stable growth direction has been established and initial results have been achieved, and credit conditions are expected to stabilize in a real sense at the end of the year, and continue to be optimistic about value restoration in the medium term, recommending food and beverage, consumer services, high-quality banks, and power operation and maintenance; (2) the direction of new and old infrastructure development, first: construction / building materials, scenery storage, UHV; (3) upstream cost reversal of auto parts, small household appliances, and independent main line military industry.

Zheshang Securities: looking at the Central Economic work Conference from a Strategic Perspective

The Central Economic work Conference was held from December 8 to 10. From a strategic point of view, how to look at its impact on A shares? Zheshang Securities saidFirst, steady growth link rods.The meeting demanded: "next year, we should take the lead in economic work and strive for progress in the midst of stability, all localities and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy, all parties should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability, and policy efforts should be in the forefront. It can be seen that the signal of steady growth is further clear. Combined with the macro group research and judgment, the policy force is properly in the forefront, the probability of a good start to the economy is high, and the annual economic growth may show a Nike trend. Mapping to equity, standing at present, after liquor repair and growth leading the rise, the market ushered in the third node, that is, low valuation will start to take over with steady growth, focusing on banks, brokerages, real estate chain and so on.

The second is next year's earnings research and judgment.The meeting pointed out: "We must persist in striving for progress in the midst of stability, adjust policies and promote reform, make good use of the timeliness and effectiveness of reform, persist in establishing before breaking down, and carry out a steady and steady struggle. "Mapping to equity, looking forward to 2022, with steady growth, we believe that the remaining liquidity will continue to improve in 1-2 quarterly dimensions. in other words, the Shanghai Composite Index will be higher in 2022 from the bottom area in 2021. Further combined with the yield distribution under different market characteristics, Zheshang Securities expects the rate of return of equity public offering funds in 2022, on the one hand, the differentiation is still more significant, and the other is compared with the overall rate of return or marginal improvement this year.

The third is to pay attention to growth and differentiation.The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, launch a number of industrial foundation reengineering projects, and stimulate the emergence of a large number of "specialized and innovative" enterprises. When it comes to rights and interests, attention should be paid to growth differentiation at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. First, in the context of a structural bull market, a substantial differentiation within growth is a normal phenomenon. From March 2020 to March 2021, for example, the yields of semiconductors and new energy, which are also supported by the medium-term boom, diverge sharply. Second, combined with the deductive laws of the bull market of semiconductor structure in 2019, the bull market of plate structure in 2020, and the bull market of new energy structure in 2021, Zheshang Securities believes that a boom is the core, and the second is that the valuation water level and fund positions will affect the follow-up space. three structural bull markets tend to switch at the end of the year and the beginning of the year.

Looking forward to 2022, taking into account the industry boom, valuation level, fund positions and other factors, Zheshang Securities believes that the growth of the new tuyere pays attention to the strong chain complement chain represented by specialization and semiconductors.

Yue Kai Securities: pay attention to the investment opportunities under the valuation switch, the tail market is coming?

Yue Kai Securities said that an important meeting was held to make an investigation and judgment on the current economic situation-the current economic development of our country is facing triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening. As for the overall tone of next year's policy, the steady growth of "stable words and progress in the midst of stability", while paying attention to the improvement of quality. The expectation of stable growth in the future is expected to heat up again, and in the direction of strength, fiscal tax reduction and fee reduction and moderate advance of infrastructure construction are the main starting points for economic support to achieve "stable growth" next year. In terms of liquidity, monetary policy still emphasizes keeping a sound monetary policy unchanged, but with the deletion of the requirements on money supply, social finance growth, macro leverage and other indicators, we still maintain a more active monetary policy expectation, and policy intensity is expected to be more active next year. In terms of micro-liquidity, market transactions continued to pick up, northward capital interpretation of the "warped tail market", this week a net purchase of 48.8 billion yuan, setting an all-time high weekly net inflow record. Overseas, US inflation continues to soar. CPI rose 6.8 per cent in November from a year earlier, a nearly 40-year high and exceeded market expectations, while core CPI rose 0.5 per cent month-on-month. We expect the continued high inflation data to accelerate the pace of the Fed's Taper. The Taper could be completed by Q1 in 22 at the earliest, and the interest rate hike cycle will begin before the end of the year. China and the United States will usher in the dislocation of the financial cycle.

Looking forward to the future, the A-share market is still expected to usher in a "tail-warped market" under the multiple expectations of policy + liquidity + marginal improvement of economic data. Towards the end of the year, A-shares will face a valuation switch. We sort it out from this point of view: in terms of aggregate, the A-share economic cycle in 2022 is downward (both the Kichin short cycle and the Juguera middle cycle are in the second half), and profits may be under pressure. on the one hand, it is subject to the downward pressure of economic aggregate. On the other hand, based on the high base effect of the same period last year. In this context, we believe that there are two investment directions in the near future: one is the opportunities brought about by improved performance expectations, and the other is to continue to pursue high economic certainty.