Core ideas:
Deepen strategy 2.0, with family doctor membership products as the core, expand horizontally and vertically, create more diversified products around "health care + health", integrate online and offline services, and provide end-to-end comprehensive solutions.
Clearly focus on the B-side customer engine, focusing on corporate customers and employees, from financial customers (banking and insurance are key industries), and then to corporate customers. Corporate customers are more willing to pay, and the conversion rate is higher. Through the expansion of the B2B2C model, the number of paying households and the ARPU value can be increased.
Adjust fees, expand the membership base and upgrade products. Lower the unit price of customers, lower the threshold for first-time purchase of member customers, and increase customer coverage. Upgrade "Health Guardian 360", internalize some rights and interests to the insurance policy, and expand the width of the service. Upgrade private doctors, strengthen medical and health services, and connect online and offline.
The detailed rules for the supervision of Internet diagnosis and treatment are on the ground, and the relevant rules of online diagnosis and treatment are in line with offline medical care, standardizing and clarifying responsibilities, which plays a guiding role in promoting business. On October 26, the National Health Commission issued the detailed rules on the Supervision of Internet diagnosis and treatment (draft for soliciting opinions), which mainly includes the need for doctors to put on record for practice in many places, the refinement of the prohibition rules for first treatment, the real-name treatment of patients and the certification of doctors' real names, to ensure that they are received by themselves, the traces left in the process of diagnosis and treatment can be traced back, unified prescriptions and supplements are prohibited, and doctors' income must not be linked to drug and examination income.
Profit forecast and investment advice. The company deepens the strategy 2.0, focuses on expanding 2B customers, predicts that the medical service business will maintain high growth, and is expected to lose money with large short-term investment. With the increase of 2B income, the Internet hospital channel is gradually taking shape, and the loss rate in 22-23 is expected to narrow gradually. Using the SoTP method to value the medical service / consumer medical / mall / health interactive business for 22 years, the reasonable value is HK $51.80 per share. The value is 6 times PS. With the continuous improvement of online medical service experience, the steady landing of Internet medical policy, the penetration rate of users' online consultation tends to increase, and the company continues to deepen the ability of online medical service as the leader of Internet medical service. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 2B customer expansion is not as expected; membership growth is not as expected; Internet hospital model is in exploration, with uncertainty; cost growth leads to loss expansion; strict supervision and so on.