Wen / Wan Yongqiang (Director of Zhitong Financial Research Center)
U. S. stocks closed slightly higher on Wednesday, buoyed by higher commodity prices, with copper hitting a three-and-a-half-year high. Turnover in the U. S. stock market is light, and many traders don't end their holidays until after the New year holiday. In addition, investors are looking at a range of economic data. The Dow closed up 28.09 points, or 0.11%, at 24774.30; the Nasdaq was up 3.09, or 0.04%, at 6939.34; and the S & P 500 was up 2.12, or 0.08%, at 2682.62.
The Hang Seng Index still needs a lot of cooperation to break through the 30,000 mark.
The Hang Seng Index opened 0.29% higher in early trading on Thursday, and has since moved higher and higher, with the Hang Seng Index constantly approaching the 30000 mark. As high as 29873 points, as of the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.9% to 29863.71 points, the market turnover of 77.42 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Hong Kong stocks continue to advance by leaps and bounds, only one step away from 30000 points. Since December 21, Zhitong Financial APP has clearly pointed out the optimism of Hong Kong stocks in the future. The main logic of the continued strength of the Hang Seng Index is as follows:
First, the shortage of funds gradually eased at the end of the year, and a very important point is to withstand the pressure of the Hong Kong exchange rate.
Second, A shares are also gradually stabilizing from the bottom, and there is a high probability that they have to be out of the bottom, which is a strong support for Hong Kong stocks.
Third, the dollar index is gradually weakening. There are several factors in the weakening of the US dollar. first, the favorable stimulus of Trump's tax reform tends to weaken, the second is the falling yield on US debt, which leads to the weakening of US dollar assets, and finally, the debt problem of the United States. in the context of nearly $18 trillion in national debt, Trump's tax cuts and infrastructure stimulus plan will eventually make the US government's fiscal deficit further increase, and the US government will only get poorer and poorer. In the end, the market's confidence in the dollar was greatly reduced.
The above comprehensive factors are the main factors driving the strength of Hong Kong stocks. However, it should be noted that the trading volume still has not kept up. Therefore, when the Hang Seng Index hits the 30000-point mark with a high probability, it must have the cooperation of quantity and capacity, otherwise it must be careful that there will be pressure at 30000 points.
Inner housing stocks and non-ferrous resources are strong as scheduled.
From the market point of view, the most popular stock is Ziguang Holdings (00365), which doubled in two days, triggering the strength of related varieties such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981). Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) mainly observed whether he could pass the high point of 14.76 yuan, but could not be careful to adjust.
From the plate point of view, the strong plate is still several major plates mentioned in the APP solution of Zhitong Finance on Wednesday, the first is the inner housing stocks, such as Country Garden Holdings (02007), Greentown China (03900), Agile (03383), Baolong Real Estate (01238), China Jinmao (00817), China Evergrande Group (03333), Kaisa Industry (01638), Sunac China (01918), China Vanke (02202) and so on. The intra-day leader was replaced by Country Garden Holdings (02007), and set a high point for several years. At present, the inner housing stock is the plate with the highest certainty.Next, it is expected that backward leaders such as China Evergrande Group (03333) and Sunac China (01918) will catch up.
Followed by non-ferrous resources, such as Qihe Environmental Protection (00976), Zijin Mining Group (02899), China Hongqiao (01378), Minmetals Resources (01208), Jiangxi Copper (00358), China Molybdenum (03993), Aluminum Corporation Of China Ltd (02600) and so on. First of all, the direct stimulus of this sector is the LME three-month copper price rose above 7300 US dollars / ton, rising for the 15th day in a row, once again setting a new high since early 2014, and then the shortage on the supply side. But the biggest logic is that the dollar is weaker, leading to stronger commodities.The sustainable attention of China Molybdenum (03993) mentioned by Zhitong Financial APP on Wednesday is expected to hit a high of the year.Other low-level varieties can be noted, and the midline is expected to strengthen.
The rebound of brokerage stocks and automobile stocks focuses on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Geely
Among the newly strengthened sectors on Thursday, one is the brokerage sector, such as Zhongzhou Securities (01375), Shen Wanhongyuan (00218), China Everbright Investment Management (00165), Guotai Junan International (01788), China Galaxy (06881), China Merchants (06099) and other stocks. This plate is stronger in the A-share market, and the biggest problem with brokerage varieties in Hong Kong stocks is that the volume is too small. Next, it depends on whether the trading volume can be released, and if the volume can be released, it will be sustained, otherwise it will still be volatile. But its biggest advantage is that it is at the bottom and is relatively safe. In fact, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) should be more flexible. With the continuous strengthening of the market and the good expectation that various reforms of the HKEx are expected to bring to the stock next year, we can pay attention to the middle line.
Second, the automotive plate, such as Beijing Automobile (01958), Geely Automobile (00175), Great Wall Motor (02333), Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238), brilliance China (01114) and other stocks rebounded collectively. As a big consumption of automobile stocks, the previous adjustment of comparative components, focusing on the leader Geely Automobile (00175).
Apple Inc's concept stock oversold and rebounded, but it can't be expected to be too high.
Apple Inc concept and mobile phone accessories stocks, which fell a lot on Wednesday, rebounded on Thursday, such as BYD Electronic (00285), Sunny Optical Technology (02382), Qiu Titanium Technology (01478), Tongda Group (00698) and AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. (02018). The rebound of the plate is mainly due to news rebuttal that the 40% cut of Apple Inc iPhone X in the first quarter of next year is not true, and Q1 sales are actually Apple Inc's seasonal periodic adjustment.
Zhitong Financial APP believes that although Apple Inc's sales volume has not decreased as much as expected, the geometry of the sales volume is still uncertain, and it is better to treat it as an overfall and rebound, but it cannot be expected to be too high. BYD Electronic (00285) is relatively strong.