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明年美股还能继续涨吗?一文速览各大行最新预测

Can US stocks continue to rise next year? A quick overview of the latest forecasts from major banks in one article

富途資訊 ·  Dec 6, 2021 22:01

Bid farewell to 2021 and look forward to 2022, can US stocks continue to go bull? Wall Street's top investment banks have been publishing their views on the direction of US stocks in the coming year.Summing up the outlook reports of the big banks, strategists expect US stocks to continue to rise next year, but high valuations will limit gains.

From 2020, forecasting has become more difficult because the epidemic has created more uncertainty.

What about the forecast for 2022? Wall Street acknowledges that, in many ways, the uncertainty of the forecast is high.Because most of the investment bank's forecasts were released before the Omicron variant appeared, the impact of the mutated virus was not taken into account.However, this will hardly affect the value of strategists' reports, as they generally believe that the US economy is better prepared for a new wave of COVID-19 infection.

Here are some Wall Street banks' forecasts for U. S. stocks next year:

  • Goldman Sachs Group-5100 points (11Compact 16thumb 2021)

Goldman Sachs Group predicts that the S & P 500 is expected to hit a high of 5100 in 2022. He pointed out that the momentum of the rise was mainly due to the continued rise in US corporate profits.

However, he also saidSlowing economic growth, Fed tightening and rising real yields suggest that US stocks should return slightly below average next year. "

Historically, in an environment of active but slowing economic activity and rising real interest rates, the S & P 500 has returned an average of 8 per cent over a 12-month period.

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co-5050 points (11Compact 30Accord 2021)

JPMorgan Chase & Co's team of strategists released a research report sayingThe Omicron variant will not derail the global stock market rally."occasional setbacks", such as the emergence of new variants, should be seen in the context of "increased immunity after natural immunity and vaccination, a significant reduction in mortality, and the birth of specific drugs".

The bank pointed out that given the chaos in the post-epidemic era, such as supply chain bottlenecks and labour shortages, a shift in the central bank's policy stance towards hawks would be a major risk to the market outlook.

  • Jefferies--5000 point (11 Universe 23 Universe 2021)

Jefferies believes that the current valuation of the S & P 500 is higher.It is expected to rise moderately in 2022.It rose to 5000 points by the end of next year.

The strategist pointed out: "the price-to-earnings ratio of large FAANMG is still very high, and apart from FAANMG, the price-to-earnings ratio (PEG Ratio) of S & P 500 stocks is close to 1." In response, we expect bond yields to rise, limiting valuations. "

  • Bank of America Corporation-4600 points (11Compact 23thumb 2021)

BofA expects the S & P 500 to close at 4600 in 2022. The bank believes that factors such as a higher discount rate, higher capital spending but slower consumption will affect US stocks.

However, the bank sees many similarities between today and the peak of the tech bubble in 2000.For example, "expectations are too high", Wall Street strategists increased their equity allocations by nearly 20 percent and "a lot of IPO activity."

  • Morgan Stanley-4400 points (11Compact 15thumb 2021)

Morgan Stanley predicts that the S & P 500 will reach 4400 by the end of 2022.Is one of the most pessimistic investment banks on Wall Street.

The bank said he remained cautious given the tighter financial environment and slowing earnings growth, and the market's 12-month risk / return looked unattractive at current levels.

While earnings of S & P 500 companies are expected to continue to grow, reaching $245 a share by 2023, slower growth and the Fed's withdrawal of stimulus measures are likely to put pressure on stock market valuations.

Edit / Corrine Viola

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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