Power substitution is expected to lead to a persistently high level of power investment:
Under the background of power substitution, the added value of electricity consumption is expected to reach an all-time peak in 2021. Referring to the historical situation, it is expected that the investment in power supply and power grid will remain high during the 14th five-year Plan period. At the same time, in the process of the construction of the new power system, the pan-base load power supply needs to maintain a safe proportion to support the stable operation of the power system, and is optimistic about the transformation of thermal power, the steady promotion of nuclear power, the development of remaining hydropower resources and the construction of pumped storage power stations.
The company has a comprehensive layout of power equipment and services, with a leading market position:
The company is based on the development, design, manufacture and sale of advanced complete sets of power generation equipment such as hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, wind power, gas power and solar power, as well as providing project contracting and services to global energy operators. market share in many links is leading or in the head echelon. After the asset injection of the Group in 2018, the existing diversified business pattern has been further improved, the proportion of renewable energy equipment business has been increasing, new orders have increased rapidly, and the driving force for sustained growth has been sufficient.
The diversity of wind, fire, nuclear and water is improving, and the space for development is constantly opening up:
During the 14th five-year Plan period, large-scale wind power and steady growth were carried out at the same time, thermal power opened a flexible transformation market, coastal nuclear power expected to gradually return to steady development, the development of surplus hydropower resources and a clear pumped storage construction plan, will continue to be good for the company's business development, and the company's growth space is expected to be further opened during the 14th five-year Plan period.
Risk tips: power investment is not as expected, power construction planning is not as expected, raw material prices remain high, in-hand order delivery is not as expected, and the implementation of the "double carbon" goal is not as expected.
Profit forecast and investment advice:
The growth of power demand for the benefit of power investment in the "14th five-year Plan" is expected to maintain the boom, nuclear power, pumped storage and wind power installation are expected to continue to improve, and thermal power flexibility transformation releases stock demand. Combined with the order delivery cycle, the company adjusts its 2021-2023 net profit forecast to 2338x2958x350,000,000 yuan (the original forecast is 2482Universe 2916Universe 3.091 billion yuan), the corresponding EPS is 0.75x995 PE 1.12, and the current price of A-share is 29.2x1max 19.5 times. Combined with the valuation level of the company during the large-scale power construction stage in history, the company's A shares are given a reasonable valuation of 30x PE in 2022, and H shares are given a reasonable valuation of 15x PE considering the differences in the valuation system of H shares. The target prices of A shares and H shares are 28.5 yuan and 17 Hong Kong dollars respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.