In fiscal year 2021, the total income of the group / main business income / net profit of returning home was RMB 1.497 billion, an increase of 25%, 16% and 31% respectively over the same period last year, which is in line with expectations. The final dividend is 0.083 yuan, and the dividend for the whole fiscal year is 0.137 yuan. The dividend yield is 4.3% (1 yuan = 1.21947 Hong Kong dollars). The dividend ratio has increased from 30% to 50% of the company's cash at the end of 2021, the highest level in history.
Analysis and judgment:
Gansu schools also contribute income. The income growth in fiscal year 2021 mainly comes from the consolidated statement of Gansu schools (April 21) and the contribution of endogenous growth. According to the split of tuition fees and accommodation fees, the income of tuition fees / accommodation fees in fiscal year 2021 was 1.345 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 90% and 10% respectively. From the perspective of schools, we estimate that Yunnan schools have an income of more than 600 million and a steady growth rate, while other schools have a relatively high income of 100 million to 200 million.
Investment continues to increase, but expenses are strictly controlled, and diversified income is further increased. The gross profit margin for fiscal year 2021 was 45 per cent, a year-on-year decline in 3PCT, mainly due to increased talent (+ 23 per cent) and teaching investment (+ 38 per cent), continuing the trend in recent years. The increase in 4PCT to 38% is mainly due to the increase in other income and the decrease in the rate of management expenses: (1) other income has increased by 93% to 318 million yuan, other income / income is 21PCT, year-on-year increase in 8PCT, other income is mainly training services, logistics income, and school-enterprise cooperation income brought by the integration of industry and education. Corresponding to this year's other expenditure increased by 259% to 60 million yuan over the same period last year, and other expenditure / income increased by 3PCT to 4% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to increased expenditure brought about by other income growth, and increased investment to strengthen vocational education, training and logistics business services; (2) the rate of management expenses decreased to 6%, mainly from strict control of expenses. The sales expense rate was 1%, unchanged from the same period last year. (3) the financing cost / income decreased by 0.67PCT to 7.1%, and the financing cost increased by 25% to 142 million yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase of US $100 million in convertible bond financing and the 24.6% increase in the total amount of interest-bearing liabilities, but the financing interest rate level of interest-bearing liabilities decreased significantly. Income tax / income is 6%, 1PCT is higher than the same period last year.
Students maintain a high employment rate and continue to promote the integration of industry and education. At the end of 2020, the average employment rate climbed to 98%, far higher than the national average, of which Yunnan and Guangxi ranked first in the province, and Gansu College reached a new high in the province for two consecutive years. The company has set up 142 employment classes for famous enterprises and 30 industrial colleges, vigorously promoting school-enterprise cooperation and industrial integration. The initial employment rate of graduates of the class of 2021 reached 90%, the number of students with high-quality employment increased by 60% compared with the same period last year, and the number of internships in famous enterprises doubled compared with last year.
Investment suggestion
We expect that in the future, the company will mainly rely on endogenous growth, and the annual tuition fees are expected to increase by 10% (low tuition fees for new merged schools and higher tuition fees for industry-education integration classes), and the number of students will maintain growth of 3-5%, adding to the growth of other business income. it is expected to maintain an overall income growth of 15-20%; while in the context of the company's continued increase in investment, net profit is expected to maintain a growth rate of 10-15%. It is estimated that the CAPEX6 will be about 100 million yuan next year, and it will drop to about 400 million yuan in the future. Future concerns: (1) Huazhong School and Gansu School will be completed, enrollment expansion and price increase space is expected to be released in March 2021, and the total number of students of the two schools will increase by double digits in the 22nd school year of 2021; (2) the new Gansu school in April and Zhengzhou school in September 21 will increase their income, and there will be room for enrollment expansion and price increase. (3) the company's US $100 million CB has been repaid, which is expected to bring about a reduction in financing costs. (4) pay attention to the progress of upgrading schools in Guizhou and Luoyang.
Considering that the company attaches importance to endogenous quality and takes the initiative to control the size of students in the future, the main business income in fiscal year 22 and 23 will be reduced from 182,019 million yuan to 1.7161,944 million yuan, adding other business income. we estimate that the total income for fiscal year 22-23 will be 21.131,2.433 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit for 22-23 fiscal year will be reduced from 668 million million yuan to 634 million million yuan. The new income / return net profit in 24 fiscal year is 2.794 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 0.4 red red 0.44 yuan in 22-24 fiscal year, and 0.49 yuan in 22-24 fiscal year, respectively. The closing price on December 3, 2021 corresponds to HK $3.44, and the corresponding PE is 7shock 6X (1 Hong Kong dollar = 0.82 yuan). It is optimistic about the company's endogenous growth ability as the leader of applied private higher education, October 28, 2021. The board of directors intends to buy back no more than HK $300 million, boost market confidence and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The uncertainty under the influence of the epidemic, the pace of expansion is lower than expected, enrollment is lower than expected, existing business quality control risk, systemic risk.