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杨德龙:2018投资机会将会比今年更多

Yang Delong: There will be more investment opportunities in 2018 than this year

新浪财经 ·  Dec 26, 2017 16:34

Today, there was no danger in the market. The Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out and rebounded to form a V-shaped rebound. At the end of the day, under the rebound of banks and other large-cap stocks, the Shanghai Composite Index again stood above the 3300-point mark, and market sentiment has improved. Yang Delong said that the recent market adjustment is due to the tight capital side near the end of the year, and there is no substantial bearish. And the decline of some strong stocks led to a blow to market sentiment, profit-taking sentiment is relatively heavy, so individual stocks fell more sharply. Yang Delong, former Managing Director and Chief Economist of the Open Source Fund, visited Sina Financial Live to have an in-depth discussion with investors on whether there are more investment opportunities in 2018, and make the following summary:

Some time ago, I have always stressed that the decline in the market is a short-term adjustment, so this fall in the wrong white horse stocks, can bargain bottom. Such as liquor, food and beverage, insurance and so on, these white horse stocks are all an opportunity to make a bottom after falling. The recent rebound in the market is mainly a rebound in white horse stocks, and even some white horse stocks have rebounded to new highs. Since the beginning of this year, I have been firmly recommending white horse stocks and blue chips, and the "28% differentiation" of the A-share market is in fact reasonable. There have been a lot of changes in investment style this year. White Horse stocks with performance support have received more attention, while poor performance stocks and small-cap stocks have been abandoned by funds. I have been asking everyone to firmly switch to the white horse stock, so that the switch can grasp the main line of the market. This round of market is a slow bull for value stocks and a slow bear for poor performance stocks and small-cap stocks.

Recently, the market response is relatively strong is an article by the Xinhua News Agency, which points out that A-shares have the characteristics of de-retail, the proportion of institutions in the market is getting higher and higher, and the share of retail investors in the market has declined. Institutions will dominate the A-share market, and the majority of retail investors are gradually withdrawing from the market. This year, the money in the market is also warming up, allocating white horse stocks. The white horse stocks, led by the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, have risen 20%, while the highly valued small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 have fallen nearly 15% for the whole year, indicating that institutions have greater pricing power over the market. While the institutional allocation of blue-chip stocks represented by fundamentals rose greatly, and even many large-market blue-chip stocks reached new highs, small-cap stocks preferred by retail investors fell. The structure of the market has quietly undergone fundamental changes, and the A-share market will become more and more mature in the 26 years from its birth to the present. The market dominated by stock fundamentals is the performance of the market becoming more and more mature, while the proportion of funds and transactions of retail investors will gradually decline. In the A-share market in the past, retail investors once accounted for 70% of the capital, but now the amount of retail capital has obviously dropped to less than 50%. The decline in retail capital is due to the severe decline in the accounts of retail investors in 2015 and the fact that many retail investors have chosen to buy the products of institutions such as funds and become institutional clients after the sharp fluctuations in the market. De-retail is also a trend in the future. It is suggested that investors should change their investment concept in time, actively embrace white horse stocks, and abandon poor performance stocks and small-cap stocks, because the pattern of the market has undergone fundamental changes. the soaring market of subject stocks will be gone forever. Before the end of this round of slow bull market, white horse stocks may continue to hit new highs. Investors are advised to adjust their positions and exchange shares to blue chips in a timely manner.

When the market fell to 2638 points at the beginning of last year, the market mood was pessimistic. I once put forward the view of a "thousand-point rebound" and suggested that we should copy the bottom of the blue chips represented by the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and be firmly optimistic about the blue chip market. At that time, the CSI 300 Index (4053.622) 12.08,0.30%) (4053.6224, 12.08, 0.30%) lowest was 2821 points, but now the CSI 300 Index has stood at 4000 points, rising as high as 4260 points some time ago, and the CSI 300 Index has risen by more than 40%. Therefore, judging from the increase of CSI 300, the blue chips I recommend have already achieved the goal of "thousands of points rebound". Although the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index is far lower than that of the CSI 300 Index for various reasons, the trend of blue chips has exceeded market expectations.

In 2018, I think the rise in the market is still the blue chip market, the "28 differentiation" market may improve, but only to Sanqi or 46, just that more stocks will have the opportunity to rise, the overall market is still biased towards blue chips. Whether there are more investment opportunities in 2018, my answer is yes. If we look at 2016 as the first year after the stock market crash, then this year is the second year of the stock market crash, investor confidence has not yet been fully restored, investor risk appetite is relatively low, and only some large-market blue chips have attracted the attention of funds. In the third year after the stock market crash in 2018, investor confidence will gradually increase, and more stocks will get relatively good returns out of the slow bull market. 2018 reflects a structural market, the index may have limited room to rise, but there will be more opportunities for individual stocks. If we seize some of the industry's leading stocks for allocation, we should be able to outperform the market. From the perspective of the global market, US stocks are still hitting new highs. As the US bull market is mainly driven by performance, the persistence of the US bull market is relatively strong, and there is still no sign of falling. And Hong Kong stocks are still in a bull market, A shares will have the opportunity to make up, especially the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 blue chip stocks are also on the low side. But now the valuations of some small-cap stocks represented by gem are more than 40 to 50 times, so they still prefer large-cap stocks and white horse stocks in 2018.

To sum up, the A-share market has formed a stock selection idea of "performance is king", which will still dominate the slow bull market in 2018. Value investment has become popular in A-shares. It is suggested that investors should actively change their investment ideas and allocate blue chips dominated by Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At the beginning of last year, I proposed a "thousand-point rebound" and was firmly optimistic about blue chips. Now it has been perfectly reflected in the CSI 300, and the CSI 300 index has risen much more than expected. This year, the market shows a phenomenon of "28 differentiation", and the process of de-retail is still going on. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the opportunities of consuming white horse stocks on the one hand, and also pay attention to the trend of technology leading stocks on the other hand. Dragon stocks will enjoy a valuation premium. There will be more investment opportunities in the market in 2018 than in 2017. It is suggested that investors must strengthen their confidence and actively tap some high-quality stocks to tap the 2018 structural market and actively embrace the 2018 slow bull market.


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