Main points of investment:
Lower profit forecasts and target prices, and increase ratings. The company issued a draft of A-share restricted stock incentive in 2021, which intends to encourage a total of 62.98 million shares at a price of 11.72 yuan, which will protect the company's high-quality and efficient development. In view of the adjustment of the coal market, the EPS for 2021 in 2023 will be reduced to 3.27Comp3.29x3.46 (formerly 3.71Compact 3.89Comp4.14). The company will be given an average of 10xPE in 2021 according to the coal and coal chemical industry, and the target price will be lowered to 32.70 yuan (formerly 37.10 yuan) to maintain the overweight rating.
The incentive intensity is large, the scope is wide, and the performance evaluation is mainly based on steady growth. The company's incentive target is 1268 people, involving senior executives, middle-level and core backbone. Among them, there are 10 directors and executives, with a per capita value of 164000 shares, which increases by 1.968 million according to the closing price of 12.1 days; for other personnel, the per capita 49000 shares correspond to an increase of 588000, with greater incentive efforts. The conditions for the lifting of the stock restriction are 2022 to 2024: 1) the net profit is not less than 20%, 30% and 40% respectively compared with that in 2020, that is, no less than 82 yuan, 89 yuan and 9.6 billion yuan; 2) the EPS is not less than 1.60,1.74,1.87 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the 12.1 day closing price is 14.8,13.6,12.7 respectively. 3) the incentive object shall be assessed year by year in accordance with the company's "2021 measures for the implementation of the A-share restricted Stock incentive Plan".
The equity incentive is consistent, and the incentive scope is significantly higher than that of the 2018 program. The company's previous equity incentive plan was introduced in 2018, compared with the 2021 plan, the share of shares increased by 34.9%, and the number of incentives increased by 152.6%. After this incentive, the company has had performance evaluation targets for six consecutive years since 2019-2024, highlighting the determination of long-term and steady growth.
Domestic coal prices have stabilized, overseas coal prices have rebounded, and stable profits are expected. The steel boom has rebounded, the demand for double coke has been supported, and the macro-economy is expected to improve. With the stabilization of coal prices, the company is expected to make a stable profit.
Risk tips. The macro-economy was lower than expected; the price of coal and chemical products fell more than expected.