I. Overview of events
On December 1, 2021, the company disclosed the draft A-share restricted stock incentive plan for 2021, which intends to grant 62.98 million restricted shares to the incentive target, accounting for about 1.29% of the total share capital of the company on the date of the plan announcement. The stock source is the A-share common stock issued by the company to the incentive target; the award price is 11.72 yuan per share; the incentive target is a total of 1268 people.
II. Analysis and judgment
Equity incentive enhances the enthusiasm of the core team, which is conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the company. This equity incentive plan is the second equity incentive since 2018. The personnel involved include directors (excluding external directors), senior managers, middle managers and core backbone personnel. The equity incentive plan helps to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the company's management team and backbone staff, closely combine the interests of shareholders, the company's interests and the personal interests of the core team, and enhance the company's market competitiveness and sustainable development ability.
The performance assessment of the exercise conditions highlights the company's confidence in future development. The draft proposes that the exercise conditions of equity incentives include: based on the average net profit in 2022, the growth rate of net profit in 2020-2024 is not less than 20%, 30% and 40% respectively. Earnings per share are not less than 1.60,1.74,1.87 yuan per share, and the growth rate of net profit and earnings per share are not lower than the average level of the same industry. According to the above EPS, based on the current equity, the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 7.798 billion yuan, 8.481 billion yuan and 9.114 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 14.83,13.63 times and 12.68 times respectively (the closing price on December 1).
The overall strength of coal and chemical business, the company's performance elasticity is expected to continue to release since the fourth quarter, coal prices remain high. According to Wind data, the average market price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao rose 34.3% in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter, an increase of 135.88% over the same period last year. For chemicals, acetic acid prices rose 112.85% and 12.82% in the fourth quarter compared with the same period last year. The rise in coal and chemical prices is expected to lead to the release of the company's performance.
III. Investment suggestions
As coal prices at home and abroad continue to rise, the company's performance flexibility is expected to continue to release. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 19.685 billion yuan, 20.085 billion yuan and 20.446 billion yuan, equivalent to 4.04 EPS 4.12 times, corresponding to PE5.87 times, 5.76 times, 5.65 times, the valuation is lower in the industry. The company is gradually focusing on the main business, divesting non-coal trading assets, and the valuation is expected to rise, covering the "recommended" rating for the first time.
Fourth, risk tips:
1) the macroeconomic growth slowed down and coal prices fell sharply; 2) the release of new production capacity exceeded expectations; 3) the prices of coal chemical products fell sharply.