Company trends
Recent situation of the company
XPeng Inc. released November delivery data: 15613 vehicles were delivered in November, + 269.6% year-on-year and + 54.0% month-on-month. A total of 82155 vehicles were delivered from January to November, which was + 285% compared with the same period last year.
Comment
November sales exceeded 15000, exceeding expectations. XPeng Inc. delivered 15613 vehicles in November, + 269.6% year-on-year and + 54.0% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations for three consecutive months. In terms of vehicle models, P7 delivered 7839 vehicles, year-on-year + 186.9%, month-on-month ratio + 29.7%, verified product power, a monthly high; G3i delivered 5620 vehicles, year-on-year + 276.7%, month-on-month + 53.7%, outstanding performance. The P5 that started delivery in October has delivered 2154 vehicles, compared with + 392.9% month-on-month, and the production capacity has climbed faster than the P7 level in the same period. Prior to this, the company directed 4Q delivery volume of 3.45-36500 vehicles, corresponding to the delivery of 8749-10749 vehicles in December. At present, XPeng Inc. Zhaoqing factory has implemented two-shift production, we believe that the company has plenty of orders on hand, driven by supply improvement and capacity climbing, delivery volume in December continues to improve.
Intelligence leads to a rapid increase in sales, reflecting the advantage of scale in 2022. The company's new car, the XPeng Inc. G9, was officially launched at the Guangzhou Auto Show and is scheduled to be delivered at 3Q22 with the industry-leading X-EEA 3.0electronic and electrical architecture, 800V high voltage SiC platform and XPILOT 4.0system. We believe that the G9 is not only expected to lead to the improvement of ASP and gross profit, as the company's first flagship model for the global market, but also to further accelerate the company's overseas expansion. We believe that the absolute increase of cost expenditure driven by the company's pre-investment is more obvious in the short term, but with the scale effect driven by production capacity climbing and new car delivery, the follow-up company will grasp the smart motor opportunity period at the same time, it is expected to continue to reflect a significant reduction in bicycle costs.
Adhere to software and hardware self-research, build scientific and technological advantages and business model innovation. The company adheres to the full stack self-research of software and hardware, and realizes the intelligent function to take the lead in landing and rapid iteration, and the advantage of differentiation has been continuously consolidated and strengthened. At present, the company has more than 4000 R & D personnel, an increase of more than 100% compared with the end of 2020. We believe that the follow-up company will make more breakthroughs in intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit, efficient energy replenishment and other areas. In terms of business model, on the one hand, the company's software revenue is expected to increase with the release of XPilot's intelligent driving function, on the other hand, the operation of the company's Robotaxi in 2022 will promote the iterative upgrade of its intelligent driving system, as well as the forward-looking layout of the intelligent travel field.
Valuation and suggestion
The current share price corresponds to 7.2x EV/Revenue in 2022. We keep the company's earnings forecast and outperform industry rating unchanged, keep the target price of US / Hong Kong stock at US $69 / HK $271m unchanged, and keep the valuation of 9 times EV/Revenue in 2022 unchanged, which is 24% upside from the current share price.
Risk
The epidemic and chip shortages affect production and marketing; the launch of new cars is not as fast as expected.