Recommended logic: The company's main growth points come from 1) the increase in the utilization rate of highway ports; 2) the high growth of the online freight platform business; 3) the structural adjustment of the integrated supply chain business. ① China's logistics expenditure as a share of GDP (14.7%) is still high. Compared with developed countries (US 7.5%), there is still room for optimization. Under the demand for improved logistics efficiency, enterprises with high-quality logistics assets will continue to benefit. Transanhua Intelligent Link relies on high-quality highway port resources to increase the utilization rate of highway ports and develop online freight platforms to accelerate monetization. ② Driven by the company's highway port asset management+resource management, the company continues to release volume after the revitalization period, and the utilization rate continues to increase. The next three years may maintain a 20-30% revenue growth rate. ③ Relying on offline highway ports to develop online freight platforms, linking cargo owners to carriers, revenue growth in 2021 may reach 140% under the traffic+subsidy model.
An asset-heavy highway port is operated, and asset-light traffic is monetized. Highway port assets are the “chassis” of the company's logistics business. Looking at the revenue side of this business, 2021 basically entered a harvest period. As a traditional business, rising rents brought about an increase in the utilization rate of highway ports. On the basis of the highway port business, the company has continuously revitalized the original business resources, built an online freight platform, networked and platformalized vehicle and cargo matching, creating a new business growth pole with a high growth rate.
The chassis business smart highway port has been steadily expanding, with stable revenue and high gross profit. The utilization rate of the Transanhua Highway Port business under the assets-heavy and high-efficiency traffic monetization model continues to increase, becoming the company's most stable business base. As of 202H1, the fixed asset book value of the company's houses and buildings reached 860 million yuan, the book value of land use rights was 93 billion yuan. The land title had been obtained with an area of 11.953 million square meters, a business area of 4,575 million square meters, and 65 highway ports were operating, with an overall rental rate of 90%. On the asset-heavy operating platform, the efficiency of the company's highway port business has continued to improve. In 2021/H1, 9969 enterprises entered the highway port, with traffic reaching 22.42 million vehicles, +46.8% year on year, contributing 660 million yuan (+27.1% year on year), gross profit of 400 million yuan, and gross margin of 65.7%.
The large-scale development of online freight platforms has become a growth pole for the company's new business. The network freight business relies on highway port resources to monetize traffic, and overseas business continues to expand, achieving real revenue in the form of service fees+government subsidies.
The transaction volume of the 21H1 online freight platform reached 8.7 billion yuan, +342% over the same period last year. Among them, the expansion scale outside Hong Kong exceeded 60%, achieving operating income of 7.13 billion yuan, gross profit of 2.7%, 1.75 million waybills, an intelligent inspection rate of 79.2%. The platform operated more than 7000 customers and carried 480,000 vehicles. In addition to the continuous development of Land Express products in the original field, the company is also actively developing upstream in the supply chain, introducing integrated easy transport, integrating upstream supplies and downstream logistics providers; the company is also cooperating with Baishi Express to continuously revitalize highway port resources.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. The company's revenue for 2021-2023 is estimated to be 340.3, 447.1, and 48.77 billion yuan respectively. The compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the next three years is 10.5%, EPS is 0.54, 0.60 and 0.67 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 17, 15 and 14 times, respectively. We believe that thanks to the increase in floor efficiency brought about by the increase in production volume and rent of the highway port business, as well as the increase in revenue and gross profit of the company's network cargo platform business, compounded by the increase in gross margin brought about by structural adjustments in the company's supply chain business, we gave the company In 2022, 18 times PE, with a target price of 10.90 yuan, covering the “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk warning: Highway port construction fell short of expectations; government subsidies declined; sharp macroeconomic fluctuations caused highway port business to fall short of expectations.
