Wen / Wan Yongqiang (Director of Zhitong Financial Research Center)
With a sharp rebound in US stocks overnight, Biden said to the rescue: "the United States will not further restrict travel or shut down the economy because of O'Micron, the United States does not need to stop work and blockade this winter, and the US government will not restrict individual gatherings to fight against new virus variants." US stocks have fallen sharply in the past few days, and objectively there is a rebound in demand. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell warned O'Micron of the risks to the economy, easing market expectations of an interest rate hike to a certain extent. And Hong Kong stocks are once again in a state of laissez-faire.
Yesterday we talked about keeping a close eye on O'Micron. The news is so bad that Modena CEO predicts that its vaccine will be far less effective against the mutant strain Omicron; it will take months for pharmaceutical companies to mass produce a new vaccine against the strain. "I think there will be a substantial decline in the protective effect [of the vaccine]," he said. I just don't know how much, because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to are like,'it's not going to be a good thing'. "
World Health Organization (WHO) said that in view of O'Micron 's potential immune escape ability and high transmission advantages, O'Micron is likely to spread further around the world, which may promote the surge in COVID-19 cases and have serious consequences, but the "Delta" virus is still the "main cause" of widespread infection worldwide. With the above news, US stock index futures fell sharply in intraday trading, and Hong Kong stocks were obviously hit.
The specific harm was mentioned yesterday and will not be repeated here. Germany may urgently discuss epidemic prevention policy on Tuesday, and the Constitutional Court will consider whether to restart the "emergency brake" measures on the same day. It is estimated that other countries will follow. The shipping logic mentioned to you yesterday has been verified by the market. COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919), SITC International Holdings (01308) and Orient Overseas (00316) all rebounded strongly. In a weak market, money is always chasing relative certainty. As long as this O'Micron does not have a good solution, the logic of the market speculation of shipping will be difficult to be falsified.
Medical topics will also be repeatedly active, today's bottom varieties such as Stone four Pharmaceutical Group (02005), Kangchen Pharmaceutical (01681) have released a huge amount, worthy of attention.
There is another extended theme, that is the cobalt theme. Affected by the epidemic and other factors, the disturbance of cobalt supply in Africa has intensified, and prices are expected to continue to rise. Cobalt prices continued to rise last week, continuing to break through the year's highs. Last week, MB alloy-grade and standard-grade cobalt prices both closed at $30.50 / lb, up 3.2% during the week, while cobalt intermediate prices closed at $25.35 / lb, up 2% during the week. The main variety China Molybdenum (03993). This logic is a little shorter, so we should pay more attention to the dynamics of the futures market. At the same time, it should also be combined with the amount of its consumption by the automobile industry.
There are also some unfavorable factors in the market itself, including the recent intensive issuance of new shares to be listed on the last bus this year, and continue to draw blood on the market. It's just that the timing is really bad, and the valuations will be very low. In other respects, some institutions expect inner housing stocks to default on more debt in the next one to two months, while real estate stocks remain in the doldrums. The Sun City Group (01383) fell sharply because it was involved in illegal cross-border gambling activities, which had an impact on gambling stocks. The market is also expecting the Macao government to tighten regulation of casinos.
On November 30, 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "14th five-year Plan for the Deep Integration of Informatization and industrialization", which adopted the combination of quantitative and qualitative objectives. this paper puts forward the overall goal and five sub-goals for the development of the integration of the two modernizations in 2025, and speeds up the cultivation and development of industries supported by the integration of industrial chips, smart sensors and industrial software. We will promote the construction of the big data Center for the National Industrial Internet. This news brings new expectations to technology stocks. The biggest response in the market is chip Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), while other software categories, such as China Software International (00354) and Kingdee International Software Group (00268), have changed.
The concept of automobile is still strong. Li Auto Inc. (02015) achieved strong results in the third quarter, with revenue growing by 209.7% over the same period last year, vehicle gross profit margin reaching 21.1%, and operating cash flow reaching an all-time high of 2.17 billion yuan. Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238) showed some performance. Another Baichuan Yingfu data show that this month, lithium iron phosphate market demand continues to increase, the mainstream market price of 90, 000 yuan / ton, an increase of 3000 yuan / ton compared with last month. Downstream battery enterprises are active in inquiry, and the market demand continues to be exuberant. Ganfeng Lithium (01772) was silent for a long time and finally made some moves today.
On November 30th, the reporter found that in the Wechat group chat scene, it has been able to directly open and access e-commerce external links, such as Taobao and other URLs no longer need to be copied to the browser and then redirected to open. This means that the giants can be interconnected. Tencent (00700) has a bit of a stabilizing trend.
The Hang Seng Index has fallen below the 23681 mentioned yesterday, and the rebound in US stocks is estimated to be a flash in the pan. The next support level of the Hang Seng Index is the 23000-point integer mark, which cannot be easily lost, otherwise confidence will be dealt a heavy blow.