The brokerage plate opened slightly higher in early trading, and then the whole market fluctuated horizontally above the water surface. By midday, the index was up 0.47%, with Huaxin shares, South China futures, Soochow Securities and so on leading the gains.

By the midday close, ETF (512000), a benchmark of market popularity, was up 0.47%, with a turnover of 355 million yuan. In the last four days, the continuous net inflow of funds totaled 782 million yuan, and the latest fund size reached 24.473 billion yuan.

[Zheshang Securities Qiu Guanhua: wealth is in the ascendant, institutions have a bright future]

Business outlook: ROE is expected to continue to rise

The operating income of the securities industry is expected to grow by 8% in 2021, accelerating 1pct compared with 21Q1-3, and revenue growth will be stable at 7% in 2022. Profit growth is expected to be 17% in 2021, faster than 21Q1-3, and profit growth will slow to 10% in 2022, but ROE can still continue to pick up 0.2pct to 7.4%.

Brokerage business: the industry commission rate is expected to decline further slightly in 2022, and the average daily stock base turnover will remain at the trillion level.

Investment banking business: the underwriting scale is expected to increase slightly in 2022, and the underwriting rate will remain unchanged.

Asset management business: it is expected that the scale of securities management is expected to stabilize and rebound in 2022, and the rate of asset management will be slightly increased.

Credit business: the balance of the two financial institutions in the industry is expected to remain high in 2022, and the interest rates of the two financial institutions are expected to decline slightly.

Industry strategy: optimistic about plate valuation repair

At present, the brokerage plate has the conditions to start the market. It is expected that the monetary policy tone is generally loose in 2022, the securities firm ROE will continue to rise, and the industry policy will be positive. At present, the PB valuation of the brokerage sector is only 1.7 times, which is in the 33% quartile of the decade, and there is plenty of room for valuation repair.

Capital market reform is expected to catalyze the stock market of securities firms. In the medium and long term, we believe that the continuous promotion of capital market reform has made the securities industry maintain a high prosperity, and the accelerated development of wealth management and institutional business of securities firms has brought about a steady improvement in ROE.

Recommended: fortune + institution double main line

Main line one: wealth management is in the ascendant. From the point of view of the demand side, the weakening of the property of real estate investment and the downward rate of return of bank wealth management products promote the transfer of residents' wealth to the equity market; (2) from the supply side, the number of investors in the securities industry continues to grow, and the investment products are becoming more and more abundant. Securities firms can share the dividends of the development of the wealth management market through consignment, investment, asset management and other business.

The second main line: the institutional business has a bright future. Providing full-chain services for institutional customers can obtain more stable and diversified income. In 2020, Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley's institutional business income accounted for more than 50% of the total revenue. The institutional business of China's securities industry has a bright future, and the securities firms with a high degree of institutionalization are expected to win.

[brokerage ETF (512000) has greatly increased its market share against the market, and the financing balance has reached a new high of nearly 13 days.]

The overall performance of the brokerage sector this year is poor, as of November 30 noon closing, brokerage ETF (512000) 50 constituent stocks, only 5 achieved gains during the year. From the trend of ETF (512000) net worth, it began to rise after hitting bottom in May, and reached a high point in mid-September, with net value reaching 1.234 at one time, but then started another downward cycle, which is currently hovering around 1.06.

However, behind the lukewarm secondary market, the securities firm ETF (512000) is quietly increasing its position by funds.

According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on November 29th, the recent 4 consecutive net capital inflows of brokerage ETF (512000) totaled 782 million yuan, and the latest fund size reached 24.473 billion yuan! As of November 29th, the share of brokerage ETF (512000) has increased by 2.638 billion since the fourth quarter, with a total net inflow of 2.841 billion yuan.

On November 26th, the latest daily financing purchases of brokerage ETF (512000) reached 153 million yuan, and the latest financing balance of ETF reached 1.988 billion yuan on that day, which reached a record high in nearly 13 trading days.

Brokerage ETF (512000) tracks the CSI securities company index, covering all the brokerage stocks listed on the market for more than half a year, a total of 50. According to the latest data on the official website of the China Securities Index Company, the top five weights account for 46%, and the top 10 account for 62%. 60% of positions are concentrated in the top 10 leading securities firms, sharing the long-term value of the strong ones. Another 40% of positions take into account the high flexibility of the performance of small and medium-sized securities firms, which is an efficient investment tool for centralized layout of head securities firms and small and medium-sized securities firms at the same time.

[risk Tip] the underlying index tracked by the brokerage ETF is the CSI all Index Securities Company Index (399975). The base date of the CSI Securities Company Index is June 29, 2007, released on July 15, 2013. the historical performance of the index is based on the simulation of the current component stock structure of the index. Its index stocks may change, and its historical performance does not predict the future performance of the index. Any information that appears in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only and the investor is responsible for any discretionary investment behavior. In addition, any views, analyses and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, and the Company is not responsible for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the contents of this article. The investment of the fund is risky, and the past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance. Money fund investment is not the same as bank deposits, does not guarantee a certain profit, nor does it guarantee the minimum return.