Shortly after the close of A-share trading, the news of "O'Micron", a new variant of novel coronavirus in South Africa, came again. According to the Russian satellite news agency and Arab News Network reported on the 29th, World Health Organization (WHO) said that the overall global risk assessment of novel coronavirus Omicron mutant is "very high" and may be widely spread around the world.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that new entry of foreigners from all countries and regions will be suspended from 00:00 on the 30th due to the influence of novel coronavirus "O'Micron" mutant strain (Omicron), according to the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) local time on the 29th. Japan became the third country after Israel and Morocco to impose a total travel ban because of the Omicron mutant strain.

It is worth mentioning that a supply chain crisis has re-emerged as more and more countries have imposed travel bans on South Africa and southern African countries. At present, the Omicron mutant virus has spread throughout South Africa, and South Africa, as the core distribution center for the import and export of cobalt raw materials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has experienced an epidemic there, and the impact on the cobalt market can not be ignored.

The risk of Omicron is very high

According to the overseas Network on November 29th, Russian satellite news agency and Arab News Network reported on the 29th, World Health Organization (WHO) said that the global overall risk assessment of novel coronavirus Omicron mutant strain is "very high" and may be widely spread around the world.

Reuters also reported that the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday that the Omicron variant could spread internationally, posing a "very high" global risk, with a surge in COVID-19 that could have "serious consequences" in some regions. In providing technical advice to its 194 member States, the United Nations agency urged them to accelerate vaccination of high priority groups and to "ensure that mitigation plans" are in place to maintain basic health services.

World Health Organization (WHO) said: "the number of spike mutations in Omicron is unprecedented, and some of these mutations may affect the trajectory of the pandemic. The overall global risk associated with the new variety of Omicron of concern is assessed to be very high. "

World Health Organization (WHO) said that in view of its immune escape potential and the advantages of possible transmitted mutations, Omicron is likely to spread further around the world. Based on these characteristics, there may be a future surge of COVID-19 globally, which could have serious consequences; but this depends on many factors, including where the surge in the number of infections is likely to occur.

In a technical briefing to member states on November 28th local time, World Health Organization (WHO) said that in view of the fact that the mutation of the "Omicron" COVID-19 mutant may increase immune escape potential and transmission, the possibility of its further spread around the world is very high.

World Health Organization (WHO) urged member States to strengthen monitoring and sequencing efforts to report in a timely manner the initial cases of O'Micron infection and their subsequent proportion in the sequencing samples. Member States should increase vaccination coverage as soon as possible and use risk-based approaches to adjust international travel measures in a timely manner.

World Health Organization (WHO) held an emergency meeting on November 26th local time to discuss the COVID-19 variant strain B.1.1.529. World Health Organization (WHO) issued a statement after the meeting, listing it as the highest-level "need to pay attention" mutant (Variant of Concern), and named it Omicron.

As of 00:00 that day, there were three new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, all of which were imported, according to the Center for Health Protection of the Department of Health of the Hong Kong Special Administrative region Government. One of the confirmed cases was infected with the new variant strain of novel coronavirus Omicron. So far, the number of cases of Omicron mutant infection in Hong Kong has increased to 3.

Blockade by the three countries

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that new entry of foreigners from all countries and regions will be suspended from 00:00 on the 30th, due to the influence of novel coronavirus's "O'Micron" variant strain (Omicron), the governor of Changan Street reported on the 29th, citing the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) local time. Japan became the third country after Israel and Morocco to impose a total travel ban because of the Omicron mutant strain.

According to statistics from Reuters and CNN, after the new variant strain of novel coronavirus "O'Micron" was first discovered in South Africa, Australia, Belgium, Botswana, the United Kingdom, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and other countries have reported relevant confirmed cases.

Fumio Kishida said on the 29th: "for O'Micron, we have a strong sense of crisis." He said that as an emergency precaution, foreigners from all countries and regions will be prohibited from entering the country from 00:00 on the 30th. Kishida said the measures were "to avoid the worst-case scenario".

Israel announced on November 27th that it would close its borders and ban all foreign visitors, becoming the first country in the world to block its borders because of the Omicron strain. Israeli Prime Minister Bennett said the ban could last for 14 days and that the mutated strain was "very worrying" and that Israel was "on the brink of a state of emergency." The Israeli Ministry of Health announced on the 26th that the country has found its first case of infection with a new variant of the virus and two suspected infections.

Hours after Israel announced a total ban, Morocco said it would deny entry to all tourists, including Moroccan citizens, for two weeks from Monday. Morocco also banned all inbound and outbound flights for two weeks. In addition, a number of countries have adopted travel bans on African countries. According to CNN statistics, at least 44 countries and regions have imposed travel restrictions on several African countries and regions.

The reappearance of the crisis of an industrial chain

According to China International Capital Corporation research report, recently, South Africa Omicron mutation virus fermentation is relatively fast, South Africa as the core distribution center for the import and export of cobalt raw materials in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the impact on the cobalt market can not be ignored.

Judging from the three waves of outbreaks in Africa, the impact of the epidemic on the attack is mainly reflected in logistics and transportation. Generally speaking, the impact of the epidemic on the attack is mainly in two aspects, one is the direct impact on the production end of the mine, such as mine shutdown, and the other is the disturbance to logistics and transportation, such as the closure of the country and the city, and the traffic is blocked. Judging from the experience of repeated three-wave epidemic in Africa in the past, the impact of actual production in African mines was more controllable in the past. In 2020, the output of Katanga/Tenke in the main mines of Congo gold was 2.39 / 15400 tons, which was 4.11% higher than that of the same period last year. It can be seen that the main disturbances are in logistics.

CICC believes that there is no doubt that the repeated impact of this epidemic on logistics and transportation, and the interference to the actual production of the mine needs further observation. South Africa as the transportation hub of Africa, most of the cobalt raw materials are also shipped to China through its Durban port. Standing at the current node, Omicron will certainly have an impact on logistics and transportation, and the short-term cobalt price is likely to stand above the 50w mark.

However, the academic circle is still in the process of studying Omicron, and its spread rate is very high, but at present, its critical data such as critical illness rate and fatality rate still need to be verified by more scientific research, so it is still uncertain whether it has an impact on the actual production of the mine.

CICC said that the impact of the Omicron shock on cobalt prices, the price upward direction is certain, rising to a specific point needs to pay attention to the evolution of the global epidemic and epidemic prevention policy adjustment, the next 2-3 weeks is a critical period. If the virus is indeed extremely harmful and can even affect mine production, cobalt is likely to hit the historical high; if the data such as severe illness rate and mortality rate are not very terrible, the increase in cobalt price will not be particularly violent, but considering the extremely high spread of Omicron, the persistence of logistics disturbance should not be underestimated.