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兴业证券:维持华虹半导体(01347)“买入”评级 目标价升至64.69港元

智通财经 ·  {{timeTz}}

智通财经APP获悉,兴业证券发布研究报告,维持华虹半导体(01347)“买入”评级,上调2021-22年收入预测3.6%/3.9%至15.96亿/21.3亿美元,每股净资产2.12/2.31美元;看好公司在景气周期下扩产对业绩带来的成长性与确定性,维持PB估值水平3.6x,结合2022年的预测每股净资产,目标价调高9%至64.69港元。

兴业证券主要观点如下:

营收超指引,产能利用率与ASP提升下毛利率超指引。

公司21Q3收入4.5亿美元(指引4.1亿),YoY+78.5%,QoQ+30.4%,得益于MCU、射频、电源管理、标准式闪存以及超级结等业务需求强劲。毛利率27.1%(指引上限27%),QoQ+2.3ppts,YoY+2.9ppts,主要得益于ASP提升,部分被折旧抵消。整体产能利用率达110.9%,QoQ+1.4ppts,YoY+15.1ppts。归母净利5,081万,QoQ+15%,YoY+187%。

通讯叠加内地需求提升,8寸利用率持续超110%。

通讯营收占比同比提升0.9ppts至14.7%,收入YoY+90.7%,主要因CIS及智能卡需求强劲。中国地区营收占比同比提升8ppts至73.4%,收入YoY+100.5%,主要得益于各平台产品需求增长。8寸厂期末产能利用率达112.1%,QoQ+0.2ppts,YoY+10.3ppts;毛利率35.2%,QoQ+3.6ppts,YoY+9.8ppts。该行判断8寸利用率有望维持110%,毛利率或维持35%。

六大平台助推下毛利率持续攀升,22H2将扩至9.5万片/月。

无锡12寸厂21Q3营收1.36亿,QoQ+62.5%,YoY+723%,收入占比提升至30.3%。三季度末产能为5.3万片/月,利用率108.7%,QoQ+4.6ppts,YoY+52.3ppts。毛利率8.5%,QoQ+5.2ppts,YoY+26.5ppts。目前公司产能已达到6.5万片/月,计划在明年底扩产至9.5万片/月。该行判断在制程向55nm演进下12寸ASP或持续增长,从而带动毛利率进一步提升,预计长期稳态下可达40%。

21Q4指引强劲,毛利率持续上抬至27%+。

公司21Q4指引:收入4.9亿美元,QoQ+20%,YoY+80%;毛利率27%-78%,QoQ+0.4ppts,YoY+1.7ppts。该行认为国产本地化生产需求以及新能源车需求景气将驱动公司22年利用率仍然维持高位,供需紧平衡下ASP仍有上升空间。

投资建议:公司营收超指引上限以及8寸/12寸满载,反映了行业需求高景气;12寸毛利率在产品组合优化下价逐步攀升,对冲折旧成本的增长。该行仍然看好公司作为中国头部晶圆代工厂的战略地位,此次扩产亦有助公司充分把握行业景气周期,带来业绩成长与确定性。

风险提示:需求景气度不及预期;无锡厂产能爬坡及产品组合优化不及预期。

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