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国信证券:下调阿里健康(00241)评级至“中性” 价值区间7.54-8.91港元

智通财经 ·  {{timeTz}}

智通财经APP获悉,国信证券发布研究报告称,下调阿里健康(00241)评级至“中性”,对公司的增长预期降低并调整估值倍数,以反映其在主站流量匮乏时收入增速较快恶化和公司增加投入出现亏损的现状,采用分布估值法进行估值,予FY2023对应的估值区间为7.54-8.91港元,下调28%/36%。

国信证券主要观点如下:

财务表现:收入增速放缓,业绩亏损

FY2022H1,公司实现营业收入93.58亿元,同比增长31%,收入增速比去年同期降低44%。Non-GAAP净利润-2.83亿元,净利率为-3.28%,为2019财年以来首次亏损。亏损原因在于品类占比变化和商品促销导致毛利率恶化,同时品牌营销加大又使得费用率有所升高。

医药电商自营业务:继续发力药品销售,活跃消费者增长放缓

FY2022H1,医药电商自营业务收入81亿元,同比增长34.5%,低于去年同期75%的增速。其中处方药收入增速高达127.3%,药品收入占自营业务比例达到64%。自营店活跃消费者人数达到9000万,环比增长900万人,低于此前4次财报半年环比1000万人以上的增幅。

医药电商平台业务:主站流量缺乏导致增速下滑

FY2022H1,阿里健康平台业务收入10.1亿元,同比增长仅有9.2%,低于去年同期72%的增长。参考国家统计局实物商品网上零售额,2021年三季度和四季度仅有个位数增长,该行估计阿里巴巴GMV增长趋势与此同步。主站流量增速下跌造成医药电商平台业务表现不佳。

医疗健康及数字化服务:收购小鹿中医,推出保险产品

FY2022H1医疗健康及数字化服务收入2.28亿,同比增长13.9%。医鹿APP日均问诊量25万次。2021年8月,阿里健康收购小鹿中医。此外,阿里健康推出了一系列慢病管理保险产品。

风险提示:医疗政策变动影响行业前景,数据安全及反垄断监管影响运管方式,产品问题或用药不当导致事故影响公司声誉,行业竞争加剧。

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