Coal plate 26 intraday shock lower, as of press release, Yanzhou Coal fell more than 7%, Haohua Energy fell more than 4%, Shanxi Coking Coal, Ping Coal shares fell more than 3%.
In the futures market, the main contract of thermal coal fell by the limit, the main contract of coking coal fell by more than 7%, and the main contract of coke fell by more than 5%.
On the face of the news, the National Development and Reform Commission said on the 25th that since October this year, the supply level of thermal coal has increased significantly, with the supply of coal increasing by more than 30% over the same period last year, which continues to exceed coal consumption, and coal storage in power plants has rebounded rapidly. Since the middle and last ten days of November, the consumption of thermal coal has increased, but the average daily coal supply has reached 8.6 million tons, with a maximum of 9.43 million tons, and the average daily coal supply has exceeded coal consumption by nearly 2 million tons, and coal storage in power plants has continued to grow rapidly.
On November 23rd, the coal storage of power plants across the country has reached 147 million tons, and the coal storage of power plants in China Network has exceeded the level of the same period last year. According to the dispatching data of previous years, in the middle and late November every year, with the overall heating season, the consumption of thermal coal increases rapidly, and the coal storage in the unified power plant decreases gradually. For example, since November 19th last year, the coal consumption of the power plant has continued to exceed the coal supply, with an average daily consumption of nearly 700000 tons of inventory and 152 million tons of coal by the end of November.
In addition, recently, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission went to Huaneng Group to conduct special research, held a forum for coal and power enterprises, listened to the opinions and suggestions of enterprises, and studied and improved the price formation mechanism of the coal market.
The participating enterprises believe that it is high time to improve the price formation mechanism of the coal market, and hope that the relevant opinions will be issued as soon as possible, and put forward specific suggestions on the reasonable range of coal mining prices in key producing areas and port water coal prices.
The National Development and Reform Commission said that it will further listen to the opinions and suggestions of all parties, study and improve the price formation mechanism of the coal market, comprehensively adopt market-oriented and legalized measures, guide coal prices to return to a reasonable range and keep them running within a reasonable range, and take timely measures to regulate and control them once they exceed the reasonable range, so as to promote the coordinated and high-quality development of upstream and downstream industries, and better ensure the safe and stable supply of energy.
China International Capital Corporation pointed out that with the advent of the peak coal consumption season, the superposition this year may be the "double La Nina year", the cold probability is higher, and the coal consumption of downstream power plants may be stronger. On the other hand, the decline in steel and cement production slows down the pace of coal demand growth. With the effectiveness of various policies to increase production and guarantee supply, coal production is expected to further increase. The coal supply and demand pattern is expected to improve this winter and next spring, and coal prices are expected to fall further, but they may still be higher than those of the same period in previous years in the short term. Looking forward to 2022, under the background that the growth rate of coal power may decline and the growth of coal consumption demand in steel, cement and other industries may be weak, coal prices are expected to return to rationality.
CITIC said that since mid-October, coal price regulation and intervention policies are still in progress, putting continuous pressure on market sentiment. However, judging from the current coal price expectations, the performance of coal enterprises in the fourth quarter and next year is still expected to remain high. With the gradual landing of the policy, the market's negative expectation or basic digestion of the price limit, the relaxation of the policy margin of the real estate industry chain, the further release of demand in the peak season in December, and the expectation of dividends for leading enterprises, all contribute to the recovery of market sentiment and are expected to become a catalyst for valuation repair after the collapse of the coal plate. Recommend good performance and attractive valuation of Shanxi Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Industry, Huayang shares, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Shenhua Energy and so on.