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中远海运港口(01199.HK):具有高能率的特点且现金保持 防御性强 能够「买入」评级

COSCO SHIPPING PORT (01199.HK): Highly efficient and strong defensive cash can “buy” ratings

國泰君安國際 ·  Nov 13, 2021 00:00

The performance of the third quarter of Shanghai is basically in line with the bank and market expectations. Although the throughput of holding shares declined slightly compared with the same period last year, the per-box revenue increased significantly, and the company's revenue in the third quarter rose by 9.5% year-on-year to US $296 million. The throughput increment of non-holding positions also gradually contributed to the increase in profits of the holding company. During the period, the company's net operating profit increased by 11.7% year-on-year, while affected by other operating expenses, the dividend profit increased slightly by 0.2% year-on-year to US $86.14 million, basically in line with the forecast.

There is still room for profit improvement.

The operating efficiency has been gradually improved, and the company's motivation has continued under the intensive operation. Guotai Junan noted that thanks to operating expenses and operating rates, the company's unit box income increased by 13.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, resulting in an increase in gross profit margin per unit case. According to statistics, the overall gross profit margin of overseas exports rose 2.6 percentage points year-on-year to 15.9% in the third quarter, which is still a gap compared with its gross profit margin of 39.7% in large and medium-sized regions. As there are a large number of new customers overseas, the bank believes that there is still more room for the company to improve its profitability in overseas investment. Under the background of continuously strengthening investment control power, the company puts forward the concept of unit box efficiency in order to increase unit revenue and reduce unit cost by means of enhanced investment management. at the same time, it proposes to achieve 57 million rights and interests throughput in 2025 (corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 8.2%), and a reduction of 15% to 20% per unit cost (corresponding to 3% to 4% less per year). According to the company's current operating conditions and the use of information technology, the bank believes that it is being promoted.

The decline in valuation has attracted a lot of attention

The company's operating conditions are good, and its output return rate is expected to be improved. On July 14, the company completed the acquisition of 20% of the company's stock rights (production capacity is about 5.2 million standard boxes), making it a shipping company. It is estimated that the total throughput of Tianjin container containers will be completed by the end of this year. Guotai Junan estimates that its throughput will exceed 8 million TEUs this year, which will increase the company's rights and interests throughput. In addition, the receipt of ContainerTerminalTollerortGmbH (CTT) in Fort Castle, Germany, has been put on the agenda. Due to the transport capacity and the ability to handle large container vessels, the bank believes that through cooperation with shipping companies, the throughput guarantee of the facility will be high. And the CTT has matured, so the revenue collection plan will directly bring profits. As of the end of the third quarter, the holding fund of China Stock Exchange remained abundant, and the operating conditions were good in the net production turnover rate (see 80%). In the future, the company will still pay attention to the receivable items in various regions and require the internal rate of return on stock rights to be above the digits. The bank believes that when the company implements the integrated production strategy, it is more concerned with the improvement of production return and predicts that the company's production return rate will benefit from it. Valuations have fallen back to attractive and defensive strength. With the release of China's imports and exports under a high base, the pulling force for the increase in corporate valuation is weak. But with the stock market buyback, Guotai Junan believes that the company's valuation is still attractive. Although the throughput growth rate slowed down in the third quarter, due to the impact of many short-term factors, the company's throughput should be expected to recover and grow in the future. In the future, the growth of the company's business will still be realized through refined marketing and integrated marketing. The company has the characteristics of high dividend yield and the premium remains abundant, and the security is strong. At present, the investment level is "input", and the target is 8.3 yuan.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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