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阿里巴巴(09988.HK):消费疲软竞争加剧 战略投资布局未来

BABA (09988.HK): weak consumption competition intensifies strategic investment layout in the future

第一上海 ·  Nov 23, 2021 00:00

The performance in the second fiscal quarter was lower than expected, and the revenue guidance for fiscal 22 was lowered: 200.69 billion yuan, an increase of 29% over the same period last year, and Bloomberg unanimously expected 206.2 billion yuan. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 27% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the company's continued increase in investment in key strategic areas; the company's investment in Taote, local life, community e-commerce and Southeast Asian e-commerce Lazada increased by 12.6 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Non-GAAP 's net profit was 28.524 billion yuan, down 39% from a year earlier, and Bloomberg unanimously expected 33.2 billion yuan. In addition, the company has completed a repurchase of $5.1 billion worth of ADSs. Due to the uncertainty of the macro environment and the intensification of competition, the company cut its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2022, which is expected to grow by 20-23% compared with the same period last year.

The growth of the e-commerce market has slowed and emerging businesses have grown steadily: China's retail revenue is up 33% from a year earlier. Customer management business grew 3% year-on-year, mainly due to a high base in 2020, fierce competition in the domestic market and a slowdown in the e-commerce industry. The number of physical GMV increased year-on-year, and the annual active buyers were about 863 million, an increase of about 35 million month-on-month. Based on the integration of the supply chain and the layout of compliance services, the company continues to expand its investment in new retail formats to meet the diversified needs of underdeveloped areas. Taote's performance is remarkable, with annual active buyers exceeding 240 million; Taocai's quarterly GMV growth of more than 150%; and ele.me orders up more than 30% year-on-year, mainly from the growth of daily necessities and medical insurance categories. Cross-border and global business revenues grew 34 per cent year-on-year, with Lazada orders up more than 82 per cent year-on-year (Donghai Group e-commerce platform ShopeeYoY+123%), mainly due to increased industry penetration, increased commodity categories and increased user stickiness. Finally, Cainiao's network revenue increased by 20% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in orders brought about by cross-border and international business; the number of packages handled by Cainiao rural post stations increased by more than 280% in a single day compared with the same period last year.

Cloud computing has made profits for four consecutive quarters and continues to benefit from industry growth: cloud computing business revenue grew 33% year-on-year, mainly from customers in the Internet, financial and retail industries. In addition, EBITA has been profitable for four consecutive quarters, with a profit margin of 2 per cent for the current quarter. We believe that the domestic cloud computing industry is still in its early stages and Aliyun is currently in a leading position in the market and will continue to benefit as the industry penetration increases in the future. With reference to overseas manufacturers, we believe that Aliyun is expected to follow the growth path of Amazon.Com Inc AWS to continue to create more profits for the company, and eventually improve the overall valuation level.

Target price of US $239.45 / HK $233.46, buy rating: 1) Macroeconomic uncertainty remains. 2) compared with overseas markets, the intensification of domestic e-commerce competition is the norm in the industry. 3) the supervision policy of platform economy is stricter. 4) the company will continue to increase strategic investment and sacrifice short-term profits for long-term growth. We believe that the company's competitive advantage in the domestic e-commerce field is still significant, and the logic of cloud business development is clear, which is expected to strengthen the company's core competitiveness in the long run. We downgrade our revenue forecast for the next three years to RMB 8830.78 USD 1015624max 1182.568 billion, and our profit for the next three years to RMB 957.08Universe 1183.36 pm, with a target price of US $239.45 / HK $233.46, with a buy rating.

Risks: 1) Macroeconomic uncertainty 2) aggravation of competition pattern 3) risk of platform economic regulation.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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