Main points of investment
Deep ploughing electrode foil market, high-end technology helps growth. The company has successfully developed new products such as FT series ultra-high specific capacitance low voltage electrode foil, HD series strong water-resistant high voltage electrode foil, HG series long-life electrode foil and so on, which are expected to become important players to participate in global competition and increase market share.
Emerging markets are growing fast and companies have core technologies. From 2020 to 2025, the average annual installed capacity of wind power needs to reach 50GW; the average annual installed capacity of photovoltaic needs to reach 45GW; and the sales volume of new energy vehicles CAGR can reach 34.42%. At present, the company has mastered the core technology of the corrosion process, which can meet the needs of downstream emerging market products and effectively undertake industrial transfer.
Raise funds to expand capacity and effectively undertake new orders. At present, the company's private offering raised 760 million yuan for production expansion plan, of which 660 million yuan will be used for high-performance, high-capacity foil research and development and production, the completion of the project will expand the company's high specific capacity, high strength, long life, ultra-high pressure and other high-end product series, enrich and optimize the variety and structure of electrode foil products, and further enhance the company's industry status. We estimate that the company's production capacity will reach 3000, 4000 and 5200 square meters respectively from 2021 to 2023.
Ahead of the layout of green energy, the impact of the "double control" policy is slight. The looseness and tightness of the power restriction policy directly affects the production of corroded foil in the previous process of electrode foil, and a large number of existing production capacity is limited. While the company's forward-looking low-carbon layout of hydropower in Ya'an, Sichuan Province, also insists on using the low-carbon power supply mode of "photovoltaic + thermal power" in Ningxia, which is rich in coal resources. it is expected that the company will usher in new opportunities under this round of energy management and control policies.
[investment advice]
The company can transfer the rising cost of raw materials, and the growth rate of downstream emerging markets is encouraging. Therefore, we estimate that the company's operating income in 2021, 2022, and 2023 will be 1.667 million, 2.106 million, and 402 million, respectively, and the EPS will be 1.06, 1.45 and 1.93, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be as much as 27-20-15. From the perspective of industry comparison, using domestic mainstream electrode foil manufacturers Dongguang, Xinjiang Zhonghe, as well as downstream aluminum electrolytic capacitor leader Aihua Group, Jianghai shares as comparable companies, the industry consensus expected PE of 2021 and 2022 in 2023 is 39.68, 30.68 and 24.29 times, respectively. In the long run, the endogenous driving force of performance growth mainly comes from the improvement of product technical performance and capacity expansion to effectively undertake the demand increment brought by emerging markets. From the current production expansion progress and operating conditions, starfish shares are methodically expanding production according to the plan, while maintaining a more efficient and stable business order. Taking into account the future market competition pattern may continue to upgrade, based on 2022 given 27 times PE, corresponding to the 12-month target price: 39 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.
[risk Tip]
The progress of the fund-raising project is not as expected.
The demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors is lower than expected.
The influence of the policy of "double control" of energy consumption
The conversion progress of foreign enterprises is not as expected.