Event: domestic Volkswagen ID series sales from September to October 2021 were 10100 and 12700 respectively, up 44% from September to September.
Volkswagen ID series is expected to release a lot of cars, and the optional installation rate of CO2 heat pump is expected to improve: after the launch of ID4+ID6, after climbing the slope, it has exceeded 10,000 monthly sales, and by October this year, monthly sales have approached 13000. With the listing of ID3, the sales of domestic ID series models are expected to continue to grow high, and the monthly sales of domestic Volkswagen ID series models are expected to exceed 25000 in 2022. Cumulative sales for the whole year are expected to exceed 300000.
The advantages of CO2 heat pump air conditioner mainly focus on: 1) environmental protection, which is different from traditional fluorine hydrogen refrigerant, CO2 as refrigerant has almost no impact on environmental pollution; 2) Energy saving, CO2 heat pump air conditioning at low temperature, compared with the traditional fluorine hydrogen refrigerant heat pump air conditioner + low power PTC scheme, the energy saving effect is more than 20% at low temperature. 3) the cooling and heating effect of CO2 heat pump air conditioner is better, and the user experience is better.
It is expected that with the domestic replacement of core components such as compressors and electronic expansion valves, as well as the gradual embodiment of scale effects, the cost of CO2 heat pump air conditioners is expected to be further reduced, gradually approaching the traditional fluorine hydrogen refrigerant heat pump air conditioning scheme, and the selection rate is expected to continue to increase.
The expansion of new customers is smooth, and the expansion of valve products is accelerating: compared with traditional CO2 heat pump air conditioners, CO2 heat pump air conditioners have obvious advantages, domestic major independent brand car companies and "car-building new forces" are focusing on the research and development of CO2 heat pump air conditioners, and new customers of CO2 high pressure pipeline products are expected to gradually land on the ground, driving further high growth in shipments.
In addition, the company is still accelerating the research and development of electronic expansion valve products suitable for CO2 heat pump air conditioning. with the landing of high-pressure electronic expansion valve, the bicycle value of the company is expected to rise from about 1800 yuan to about 3000 yuan. With the expansion of new products, the high growth of the company's CO2 thermal management business is expected.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will achieve operating income of 673 million yuan and net profit of 2.48 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 100-36-23 times. Combined with the average valuation of various segments of the industry, taking into account the high technical barriers to CO2 products and the expansion of new customers + new products in the future, we give the company Xineng car business a certain valuation premium, after segment valuation, the target market value is about 11.9 billion yuan, continue to be bullish, maintain the "buy-A" rating, 6 months target price 45.59 yuan per share.
Risk tips: the prosperity of the automotive industry is not as expected, the volume of new products is not as expected, the production and sales of important customers are not as expected, and the permeability of CO2 heat pump air conditioning system is not as expected.