Deep ploughing commercial vehicle intelligent network connection market, customers and application fields continue to expand. Since its establishment in 2009, the company has been deeply rooted in the intelligent network industry of commercial vehicles, and the main products and applications have been innovated continuously. at present, the main business includes intelligent enhanced driving system, on-board networking terminal, human-computer interaction terminal, advanced auxiliary driving system and smart city, and the application field extends from passenger cars to trucks, dregs, sanitation vehicles and engineering machinery vehicles. Covering industry leading customers such as Shaanxi Automobile, Sinotruk, BAIC Foton, Dongfeng, Sany heavy Industry, etc., with a revenue CARG of more than 30% from 2017 to 2020, and a leading market share in the industry, the company has long-term growth under the trend of continuous increase in intelligent network penetration of commercial vehicles.
Driven by regulatory factors, the main products are expected to rise in both volume and price. According to the requirements of the sixth national standard, starting from July 2021, all kinds of heavy diesel vehicles in China are required to install on-board communication terminals (T-BOX) before leaving the factory, and the pre-installed permeability is increased to 100%. The Ministry of Public Security released a draft of the vehicle driving Recorder in February, and the official document is expected to be launched this year, which is expected to greatly increase the value of the product. The Ministry of Communications issued a draft of the Road Transport regulations in November last year, requiring medium and heavy trucks to install on-board monitoring equipment, which is expected to stir up the stock market. The above regulatory documents are related to the company's main business products, and the company's sales are expected to rise in both volume and price.
Lay out the automotive electronics market and enhance the value of commercial vehicles. The company actively distributes its diversified business. Several years ago, it developed an auxiliary driving system to help regulate urban dregs. Later, it acquired Chengsheng Technology, developed its smart city business and developed in coordination with the main business. In 2021, the company participated in the establishment of Beijing Yubo Automotive Control system Co., Ltd., entered the car controller market, and has achieved mass shipments. With the continuous improvement of the value of automotive electronics in the whole vehicle, the company is expected to make use of the channel advantage to further enhance the bicycle value and further expand the revenue scale.
Driven by multiple positive factors, the company has been weakened by the decline in commercial vehicle sales, and the performance logic has been reshaped.
By reviewing the historical trend of the company's stock price, we find that the market takes the change of the growth rate of commercial vehicle sales as the forward-looking indicator of the company's performance. However, from the perspective of 2022, although commercial vehicle sales will decline to a certain extent according to the development environment and trend of the industry, multiple positive factors such as new policies, new customers and new areas will promote the company's performance growth against the trend, and with continuity, the company's performance logic is expected to be reshaped, and next year's performance is expected to achieve substantial growth.
[investment advice]
We believe that with the release of regulation and market demand, commercial vehicle networking will be further developed, and the company will be able to enhance the value of bicycles by virtue of its rich customer resources, excellent operating capacity and technical advantages in advance layout. to achieve a steady rise in volume and price on the road. We estimate that the company's income from 2021 to 2023 is 4.59,7.91 and 1.092 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributed to the parent company is 0.49,1.22,191 million yuan, the EPS is 0.49,1.21,1.91 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE is 72,29,19 times. With reference to the company's profit forecast and the industry average valuation level, we are strongly optimistic about the company's future performance and give the company a valuation of 40 times PE in 2022. Upgrade to "buy" rating, with a 12-month target price of 48.4 yuan.
[risk Tip]
Commercial vehicle sales decline more than expected
The price of raw materials in the upper reaches continues to rise and is out of stock.
The policy fell short of expectations.
Competition in the industry has intensified.