Overview of events
In fiscal year 2021, the company realized income / net profit / adjusted net profit of RMB 882 million respectively, with an increase of 16%, 53% and 11% respectively over the same period last year. The revenue is in line with expectations, and the net profit is lower than expected. The adjustment items are: 1) Huali College transfer compensation fee of 150.8 million yuan; 2) exchange loss (about 18.2 million yuan in fiscal year 2021 and 5.5 million yuan in fiscal year 2020); 3) fair value income of investment property (about 14.6 million yuan in fiscal year 2021 and 2.8 million yuan in fiscal year 2020); 4) realized interest of 1.2 million yuan in compensation payable. The final dividend per share is 0.0411 yuan, the dividend rate is 78%, the adjusted dividend rate is 37.2%, and the dividend yield is 4%.
Analysis and judgment:
In fiscal year 2021, the group's tuition / accommodation income was 8130.68 million yuan respectively, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. At the end of fiscal year 2021, the total number of students in the group was 46669, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year. The sharp increase in accommodation fees is mainly due to the low base of students affected by the epidemic for half a year in fiscal year 2020 and the increase in the utilization rate of Yunfu campus. In fiscal year 2021, Zengcheng / Yunfu campus can accommodate 30,079 people, an increase of 3% and 0%, respectively, and the utilization rate is 92.7%, 65.3% and-0.3/40.8PCT respectively.
Among them, from the perspective of schools:
(1) the number of students / tuition fees of Huali College will increase by 3% and 8%. In fiscal year 2021, Huali College realized tuition income of 462 million yuan, an increase of 11% over the same period last year, and accommodation income of 29 million yuan, an increase of 111% over the same period last year. The number of students in Huali College was 18307, an increase of 3.1% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the average tuition fee is 25300 yuan, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year.
(2) the number of students / tuition fees of Huali Vocational College will increase by 7% and 4%. In fiscal year 2021, Huali Vocational College realized tuition income of 248 million yuan, an increase of 11.2% over the same period last year, and accommodation income of 27 million yuan, an increase of 167% over the same period last year. Among them, the number of students in Huali Vocational College was 18822, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year (14596 / 4226 in Zengcheng campus and-11.7% in Yunfu campus, respectively). The average tuition is estimated to be 13200 yuan, an increase of 3.8% over the same period last year.
(3) the number of students / tuition fees of Huali technician College has increased by 20% and 8%. In fiscal year 2021, Huali technician College realized tuition income of 103 million yuan, an increase of 10.4% over the same period last year, and accommodation income of 13 million yuan, an increase of 153% over the same period last year. Among them, the number of students in Huali technician College was 9540, an increase of 19.7% over the same period last year (Zengcheng Campus / Yunfu Campus increased by 14.5% and 51.5% respectively). It is estimated that the average tuition fee is 10800 yuan, down 7.8% from the same period last year.
The gross profit margin in fiscal year 2021 was 53.4%, a decrease of 6PCT compared with the same period last year, mainly due to 1) conversion and the use of Jiangmen new campus library, newly purchased books worth 20 million yuan; 2) students took online classes at home for half a year in fiscal year 2020, while students in fiscal year 2021 brought an increase in property management and maintenance fees.
In fiscal year 2021, the group's net interest rate was 16.3%, down 24PCT from the same period last year, and the adjusted net interest rate was 33.9%, down 10.4PCT from the same period last year. The decrease in net interest rate is mainly due to: (1) the decrease in gross profit margin, (2) the conversion of one-time expenditure of 150.8 million yuan, and (3) the sales expense rate increased by 1PCT to 3% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to increased brand promotion efforts and the use of the new campus. (IV) the increase in financial expenditure was mainly due to an increase in bank and other borrowings. (5) income tax / income is 3% and 2PCT is higher than the same period last year, which mainly comes from vocational education and training business. at present, Guangdong Province has not yet given a time point for "selecting camp and choosing non-income", and academic education has not yet paid tax.
Investment suggestion
Future growth space: (1) with the successful conversion of Huali College, we estimate that it will save 7000-80 million yuan in management fees each year (20 million yuan per session, and new students in fiscal year 2022 will not have to pay management fees). At the same time, the group will control the enrollment of Huali Group before the transfer, and there will be an increase after the transfer is successful. The government of Xinhui District of Jiangmen City has provided the group with a maximum of 1258 mu of land for the new campus of Huali College, which is expected to accommodate 25000 students, of which the first phase of the campus has been completed and has been put into use in September 2021 and is expected to accommodate 4000 students. Upon completion of the construction of the two campuses of Huali College, it will be able to accommodate 45000 students. (2) the new Jiangmen campus of Huali Technical College can accommodate a total of 8100 students, of which the first phase can accommodate 6000 students and is expected to be put into use in September 2022. In addition, the enrollment of Huali Technical College will increase after the change of academic structure. (3) affected by the application for undergraduate promotion during the 14th five-year Plan period, the number of students of Huali Vocational College has increased moderately in recent years. The number of students and tuition fees are expected to increase after the successful upgrading in the future. The two campuses of Huali Vocational College can accommodate 25000 students. (4) tuition fees are increased by 10% every 2 years. (5) the policy is good for vocational education. The company's vocational education income is 4.6 million yuan in fiscal year 2021. The company aims to increase the future vocational education sector at a growth rate of not less than 50%, reaching 2% of the group's income in 10 years. Taking into account the lower-than-expected growth of the number of students in FY22, the annual income of FY22 will be reduced from 1.022 billion yuan to 996 million yuan, and the net profit of returning mother will be reduced from 419 million yuan to 355 million yuan. Taking into account the rapid growth of the vocational education sector, the annual income of FY23 will be increased from 1.158 billion yuan to 1.194 billion yuan, and the net profit of returning mother will be adjusted from 477 million yuan to 456 million yuan. The new FY24 annual income / homing net profit is 14.37 / 579 million yuan respectively, corresponding to the FY22/23/24 annual EPS of 0.3cusp 0.38Maple 0.48, and the share price of HK $1.23 on November 22nd, 2021, corresponding to PE of 3.4Cash 2.7max 2.1X (HK $1 = RMB0.82), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The implementation of the strategy is not as good as the expected risk and systemic risk.