The brokerage plate repeatedly pulsed in early trading. Xiangcai shares, which rose by the limit of the previous trading day, led the rise, and are now up more than 6%, with Great Wall Securities, Ruida Futures, Oriental Securities, Northeast Securities and so on leading the gains.
As of 10:35, market popularity and wind direction brokerage ETF (512000) rose 0.56%, with a turnover of nearly 400m yuan. The plate pullback range from September 14 to the presentThe share of brokerage ETF (512000) increased by 4.414 billion shares, ranking second in the market of nearly 500 stock ETF, with a total net inflow of 4.833 billion yuan.
[Xu Yizhou, Chief non-Bank of Societe Generale Securities: comply with the trend and meet the tide of market expansion]
Xu Yizhou, chief of Societe Generale Securities non-Bank, pointed out in the "Investment Strategy of the Securities Industry in 2022: complying with the trend and meeting the trend of Market expansion" that the securities industry is expected to achieve operating income and net profit of 5580 and 214.8 billion respectively in 2022, an increase of 12.6% and 14.0% respectively over the same period last year, and the industry boom continues to create sufficient room for the current valuation and repair.
Review of 2021: the brokerage sector has made a stock market under the catalysis of wealth management.
As of November 1, the brokerage index (Shenwan) has fallen 9.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.5 percentage points, but under the catalysis of wealth management, high-quality stocks with leading advantages at the channel end and asset side have come out of the independent market, and the excess return is significant. In terms of profits, the expansion of active superimposed issuance in the market promoted the continued growth of industry profits. The operating income and net profit of the 2021H1 industry were + 8.9% and + 8.6% respectively from the same period last year to 2324 and 90.3 billion, respectively. The annualized ROE reached the highest level since 2017. Listed securities firms benefited from the good performance contribution of funds, direct investment and other subsidiaries with a higher growth rate. In terms of valuation, under the extreme style of the market, the industry valuation deviated from profitability, and the valuation did not rise synchronously with the upward trend of profitability, which significantly mismatched the room for valuation breeding and repair; in terms of policy, the issuance mechanism and trading mechanism continued to deepen reform, nurturing a good policy environment for the securities exhibition industry.
Financing side: the re-expansion of the coverage of the registration system gives birth to new opportunities for the industry pattern.
With the continuous deepening of the reform of the capital market, the selected layers of Beijiao have been built on the basis of a new third board and a new pattern, and the construction of relevant systems is advancing rapidly. The Beijing Stock Exchange is positioned to serve innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, defines the pilot registration system, and greatly relaxes the threshold for investors. the innovation of issuance and trading mechanism has laid the market foundation for the opening of the market. From the perspective of the brokerage exhibition industry, the Northern Exchange brings incremental space for the investment banking business, the number of reserve projects of small and medium-sized brokerages has an advantage, and the proportion of high-quality projects of the head brokerage is relatively high. as the enterprise can change the lead underwriter, the change of the long-term competitive pattern still depends on the ability of the investment bank. IPO revenue is expected to increase by about 5% in the past three years after the establishment of the Northern Exchange.
Trading side: the transformation of wealth management of securities firms will reshape the business model of the industry.
The new regulation of asset management has brought about a downward trend of risk-free rate of return, and the policy orientation of "housing without speculation" has also continuously weakened the value of real estate investment; the asset management products represented by public funds are becoming more and more abundant and become an important investment to undertake the relocation of residents' wealth. Wealth management business, which aims to maintain and increase the value of residents' assets, will reshape customer trading behavior and bring new business models to the securities industry. From the point of view of the role and income form of securities firms in the wealth management industry chain, it mainly lies in the channel side (consignment of financial products) + product side (securities firm asset management, participating public funds, private equity investment, over-the-counter derivatives, etc.). At present, securities firms have achieved a good layout on both the channel side and the product side. From the perspective of financial mapping, the revenue and profits of the channel side + product side have been in a continuous upward channel since 2018, and its profit contribution range to the head brokerage has been raised to 20-40%. If the financial contribution of derivatives is taken into account, it will be further improved. In the future, with the continuous increase in the proportion of income and profit of securities firms' big wealth business, the logic of securities firms' valuation may usher in a systematic revaluation.
We will deepen the reform of the capital market, superimpose the continuous transformation of wealth management, and firmly value the high-quality target of wealth management.
Looking forward to 2022, the reform of the capital market will continue to deepen. Steadily promoting the reform of the registration system, perfecting the multi-level equity market system and improving the service quality of the bond market are the long-term goals. The reform of the issuance mechanism represented by the North Stock Exchange will also give rise to new exhibition space for securities firms. The moving effect of household savings assets will accelerate the reform of the business model of the securities industry, and the in-depth promotion of the transformation of wealth management will give the industry long-term growth and promote the deduction of industry investment logic from the pursuit of flexibility to the pursuit of growth. In 2022, the brokerage industry is expected to achieve operating income of 5580 and net profit of 214.8 billion respectively, an increase of 12.6% and 14.0% respectively over the same period last year. The prosperity of the industry continues to provide sufficient room for the current valuation and repair.
[brokerage ETF (512000): 4.8 billion net purchase funds during the adjustment period]
According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on November 19th, the latest fund share of brokerage ETF (512000) reached 22.904 billion, with the latest estimated size of 24.661 billion yuan, ranking second among all industries in Shanghai and Shenzhen in terms of ETF.
In the large range of the pullback from September 14 to the present, and the small interval of the pullback from November 12 to the present.The share of brokerage ETF (512000) increased by 4.414 billion shares and 770 million shares respectively, ranking second among nearly 500 stock ETF in the whole market.(excluding the new fund established after September 14), the equivalent amount is 4.833 billion yuan and 826 million yuan.
On November 19th, the latest daily financing purchases of brokerage ETF (512000) reached 175 million yuan, while the latest financing balance of ETF reached 1.967 billion yuan on that day, which is at an all-time high.
[risk Tip] the underlying index tracked by the brokerage ETF is the CSI all Index Securities Company Index (399975). The base date of the CSI Securities Company Index is June 29, 2007, released on July 15, 2013. the historical performance of the index is based on the simulation of the current component stock structure of the index. Its index stocks may change, and its historical performance does not predict the future performance of the index. Any information that appears in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only and the investor is responsible for any discretionary investment behavior. In addition, any views, analyses and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, and the Company is not responsible for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the contents of this article. The investment of the fund is risky, and the past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance. Money fund investment is not the same as bank deposits, does not guarantee a certain profit, nor does it guarantee the minimum return.