Driven by the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the status of hydrogen energy is gradually promoted. After the launch of the fuel cell demonstration application policy, the expectation of the launch of the top-level design of the hydrogen energy industry is also heating up. With the encouragement of the policy, the pace of hydrogen energy industrialization is expected to speed up, and the market expectation for the future hydrogen energy application scenario is also more clear. We continue to recommend companies with first-mover and technological advantages in each sub-industrial chain.
With the continuous improvement of the policy system, the top-level design of the industry is expected to be launched.
Since the second half of this year, the policy expectation of the hydrogen energy industry has gradually warmed up. At the end of August, five central ministries jointly launched the work of fuel cell demonstration application, defining the specific mechanism of the three demonstration urban agglomerations and subsidies at the central level. In addition, local governments have also followed up and issued rules on industrial planning and local subsidies. The continuous superposition of policies has promoted the improvement of industry expectations in the industry and capital markets. According to a recent report in the China Securities Journal, there will be a top-level design release on the hydrogen energy industry policy, which shows that the policy system is becoming clearer. The establishment of the "rules of the game" and policy system in the industry will help to encourage leading enterprises with large-scale and leading technology to stand out.
"the industry participants are gradually working hard, and the output is accelerating.
In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic and policy expectations, the pace of industry output slowed down. However, with the landing of the policy this year, hydrogen energy enterprises have more clearly defined the amount of subsidies and product pricing, and orders have increased significantly in the relevant industry chain, especially in the fuel cell vehicle industry chain. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles increased by about 45% year on year in the first 10 months of this year. In addition, the shipments of equipment in hydrogen production, electrolytic cells and storage / transportation / addition industry chain have increased significantly, and the investment of central enterprises and energy leading enterprises in hydrogen energy projects has also gradually increased. The increase and strength of industry participants is conducive to the promotion of hydrogen energy industrialization.
Cost reduction will become the key driver of hydrogen energy industrialization.
The high cost of the whole hydrogen energy industry chain is a factor restricting the development of industrialization at present. In the future, there is room for cost reduction in key areas such as green hydrogen preparation, hydrogen transport and hydrogen storage, fuel cell stack and so on. The cost reduction path of green hydrogen lies in the further reduction of the cost of new energy power generation and the price of electrolytic cells. we expect that green hydrogen can basically be parity with fossil energy hydrogen production by 2030. The hydrogen transport and hydrogen storage link mainly depends on the promotion of high-pressure hydrogen storage bottles and the reduction of compression cost. The cost reduction of the battery stack has been accelerated at present. With the further decline of the unit power cost in the future, on the one hand, the technology upgrade needs to continue to improve the power density, on the other hand, it needs the scale effect after the large-scale growth of production, diluting the unit cost. With the promotion of policy, the accession of leading energy enterprises, the localization of key materials and technological iteration, the cost reduction of hydrogen industry chain and the expansion of market scale are expected to form a positive cycle in the future, and industrialization is expected.
"risk factors:
The progress of key technologies is slow, and the industrial support policy is lower than expected.
"Investment strategy:
Expectations of top-level policies in the industry may bring a new round of catalyst for hydrogen companies and push share prices to start a new round of rise. With the increase of layout enterprises and the appearance of policy effect, the expectation of the acceleration of industry industrialization is also more certain. The stocks with active stock prices last week were Furuitsu, Houpu, Zhiyuan Xinneng, Yangmei Chemical, and so on. We continue to recommend companies with active layout and first-mover advantages in all aspects of the hydrogen energy industry chain: Yitong, the leader of fuel cell system, Meijin Energy, Dongfang Electric, Weichai Power, which are in the layout of the whole industry chain. Dongyue Group, which has made a breakthrough in proton exchange membrane, a key material for fuel cells, and an ice wheel environment with sufficient technical reserves on hydrogen energy compression equipment.