This article comes from Gronghui column: Guotai Junan Securities Research, author: Guojun Home Appliances team

Abstract

Guide to the report:In 2021, Q3 global color TV shipments declined compared with the same period last year, and downstream demand is weak; export shipments declined greatly compared with the same period last year, but the marginal improvement trend of domestic sales is obvious, which will benefit from the demand improvement brought about by the upgrading of consumption.

Summary:

Global demand for color TV sets is weak, and 21Q3 shipments are down from the same period last year:The global shipment of Q3 color TV sets in 2021 was 53.7 million units, down 17.1% from the same period last year, ending the growth trend of Q3 shipments for four consecutive quarters since 2020. The main reasons for the decline in Q3 shipments over the same period last year are as follows: 1) in the past 20 years, Q3 was affected by the "home economy" brought about by the global epidemic, and shipments increased by 13% compared with the same period in 19 years. As a result, the base of Q3 in 21 is higher than that in the same period last year. 2) the global level events such as the European Cup and the Olympic Games are held in H1 in 21, which drives the demand for color TVs, resulting in the early release of H2 demand in 21 years, and the overall demand of Q3 in 21 years is weak. Shipments of OLED TV Q3 reached 1.7 million units in the single quarter, an increase of 70% over the same period last year. Shipments in the first three quarters were 4.4 million units, an increase of 106.7% over the same period last year, reversing the trend.

Export sales have fallen sharply, while domestic sales have rebounded marginally:Overseas market Q3 overseas shipments dropped 16.5% in 21 years compared with the same period last year, while domestic market Q3 domestic shipments declined somewhat in 21 years compared with the same period last year. However, considering the low Q3 base in 20 years, the performance of the domestic market has improved somewhat, but demand is still weak. From a sub-regional point of view, shipments in North America in overseas markets declined sharply in the first three quarters of 21 years compared with the same period last year, while Japan, Western Europe and South America performed better. Considering the consumption delay caused by "double Eleven" and "double Twelve" activities in the domestic market, as well as the replacement demand brought about by consumption upgrading, we believe that the domestic sales of Q4 color TV sets will continue to rebound year-on-year in 21 years. In 2021, the price of offline channel in Q3 domestic market began to rebound in September, and the average price of online channel is still in a downward trend.

The demand of the contract factory is under pressure, and the cost pressure is reduced:The global shipments of Q3 in the single quarter of 2001 are in line with the trend of global shipping demand, with a sharp drop of 29.5% compared with the same period last year, but thanks to the peak of panel price Q3, the cost pressure of color TV foundry is expected to slow down significantly.

Investment advice:Affected by factors such as a high base in the same period last year and weak downstream demand, Q3 global color TV shipments fell sharply in 2021 compared with the same period last year, ending four consecutive quarters of positive growth. From the perspective of domestic and export, the overdraft of consumer demand and the rise of shipping prices have led to a large decline in Q3 export shipments, while the decline in domestic shipments has narrowed marginally, and the Q4 rebound trend is expected to continue. Individual stocks recommend laser TV with fast volume, Hisense video, a laser display leader with cutting-edge display technology, and TCL electronics, a color TV leader with an increasing overseas market share.

Risk Tips:Domestic demand rebounded less than expected, raw material prices and shipping prices continued to rise.

1. Global demand for color TV sets is weak, 21Q3 shipments decline compared with the same period last year.

21Q3 global color TV shipments declined compared with the same period last year, while high-end categories bucked the trend.According to Overevo's monthly report on Global TV Brand Shipping data, Q3 global color TV shipments in 2021 were 53.7 million units, down 17.1% from the same period last year, ending four consecutive quarters of shipments growth since Q3 in 2020. The main reasons for the decline in Q3 shipments over the same period last year are as follows: 1) in the past 20 years, Q3 was affected by the "home economy" brought about by the global epidemic, and shipments increased by 13% compared with the same period in 19 years. As a result, the base of Q3 in 21 is higher than that in the same period last year. 2) the global level events such as the European Cup and the Olympic Games are held in H1 in 21, which drives the demand for color TVs, resulting in the early release of H2 demand in 21 years, and the overall demand of Q3 in 21 years is weak.

Although the overall global demand for color TVs in Q3 declined in 21 years, OLED TV Q3 shipped 1.7 million units in a single quarter, an increase of 70% over the same period last year, and 4.4 million units in the first three quarters, an increase of 106.7% over the same period last year. At the same time, the trend of OLED big screen has been further verified. In the first three quarters of 21 years, the shipping area of OLED color TV was 1.056 million square meters, with an average size of 48.1 inches, an increase of 1.4 inches over the same period last year.

Judging from the global color TV brand shipments in the first three quarters of 21 years, Samsung is still in the leading position, with shipments reaching 30.4 million units, with a large increase in Europe, South America, Asia-Pacific, Middle East & Africa and other markets. Domestic brands TCL, Hisense (including Toshiba) and XIAOMI ranked third, fourth and fifth respectively, of which TCL's market share in North America increased significantly, while European market shipments grew faster than the same period last year; Hisense through global event marketing activities such as the European Cup, overseas markets, especially European shipments increased significantly; XIAOMI continues to enrich the color TV product matrix, online channels to maintain a substantial lead.

two。 Export sales have fallen sharply, while domestic sales have rebounded marginally.

In the past 21 years, the export of Q3 has declined greatly, and the marginal demand of the domestic market has improved.After experiencing the global economic impact caused by the H1 epidemic in 2020, color TV shipments in overseas markets began to rebound by 20% in 20 years, superimposed by the concentrated holding of H1 global events in 21 years. the rebound trend continued until Q2 in 21, and overseas shipments of Q3 in 21 decreased by 16.5% compared with the same period last year. In contrast, in the domestic market, due to the leading overseas control of the epidemic in the past 20 years, domestic color TV shipments have not rebounded as sharply as in overseas markets, but Q3 and Q4 have dropped by 9.1% and 16% respectively over the past 20 years compared with the same period last year. After four quarters of low fluctuations in shipments, the decline in Q3 domestic shipments in 21 years has narrowed compared with the same period last year, but considering the low Q3 base itself for 20 years, the performance of the domestic market has improved somewhat, but demand is still weak.

From a sub-regional point of view, shipments in North America in overseas markets declined significantly in the first three quarters of 21 years compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the follow-up demand for high-speed overdraft in the previous four quarters. The markets in Japan, Western Europe and South America performed well, with color TV shipments increasing by 10.3%, 8% and 6% respectively in the first three quarters of 21 compared with the same period last year. Shipments in the domestic market fell 15.7% in the first three quarters of 21 years compared with the same period last year, but the Q3 single-quarter decline narrowed. Considering the consumption delay caused by "double Eleven" and "double Twelve" activities in the domestic market, as well as the replacement demand brought about by consumption upgrading, we believe that the domestic sales of Q4 color TV sets will continue to rebound year-on-year in 21 years.

The average price of online channels in Q3 domestic market rebounded in 21 years, and large-scale shipmentsThe proportion of quantity increased.After the average price of offline channel in Q3 domestic market fell in July and August in 2021, the price began to rebound in September, while the average price of online channel Q3 is still in a downward trend. The main reason for the obvious deviation between the average price of domestic online and offline channels is the increase in the proportion of large-size shipments of 65 inches and above in offline channels, while the proportion of small-size shipments in online channels is relatively high. it also reflects that consumers prefer offline experience shopping for large-size color TV products. The price of the Q3 panel has entered a downward trend in 21 years. Taking the 43-inch panel as an example, the average price in September has fallen by more than 40% from the July high. However, from the perspective of the domestic market, due to the upgrading of the product structure, the sharp decline in panel prices has not yet led to a significant drop in the price of color TV sets.

3. The shipping demand of the contract factory is under pressure, and the cost pressure is reduced.

In 21 years, the shipments of Q3 global color TV contract manufacturers declined due to insufficient demand, but the peak drop of panel prices significantly reduced the cost pressure of contract manufacturers.. In 20 years Q3-21 Q3, global color TV contract factory shipments benefited from strong downstream demand, and rising costs led color TV manufacturers to prefer to produce through ODM contract manufacturing. H1 global color TV contract factory shipments reached 45.9 million units in 21 years, an increase of 16.5% over the same period last year. The global shipments of Q3 in the single quarter of 2001 are in line with the trend of global shipping demand, with a sharp drop of 29.5% compared with the same period last year, but thanks to the peak of panel price Q3, the cost pressure of color TV foundry is expected to slow down significantly.

4. Investment suggestion

Affected by factors such as a high base in the same period last year and weak downstream demand, Q3 global color TV shipments fell sharply in 2021 compared with the same period last year, ending four consecutive quarters of positive growth. From the perspective of domestic and export, the overdraft of consumer demand and the rise of shipping prices have led to a large decline in Q3 export shipments, while the decline in domestic shipments has narrowed marginally, and the Q4 rebound trend is expected to continue. Individual stocks recommend laser TV with fast volume, Hisense video, a laser display leader with cutting-edge display technology, and TCL electronics, a color TV leader with an increasing overseas market share.