Global demand for color TV sets is weak, and 21Q3 shipments are down from the same period last year:The global shipment of Q3 color TV sets in 2021 was 53.7 million units, down 17.1% from the same period last year, ending the growth trend of Q3 shipments for four consecutive quarters since 2020. The main reasons for the decline in Q3 shipments over the same period last year are as follows: 1) in the past 20 years, Q3 was affected by the "home economy" brought about by the global epidemic, and shipments increased by 13% compared with the same period in 19 years. As a result, the base of Q3 in 21 is higher than that in the same period last year. 2) the global level events such as the European Cup and the Olympic Games are held in H1 in 21, which drives the demand for color TVs, resulting in the early release of H2 demand in 21 years, and the overall demand of Q3 in 21 years is weak. Shipments of OLED TV Q3 reached 1.7 million units in the single quarter, an increase of 70% over the same period last year. Shipments in the first three quarters were 4.4 million units, an increase of 106.7% over the same period last year, reversing the trend.
Export sales have fallen sharply, while domestic sales have rebounded marginally:Overseas market Q3 overseas shipments dropped 16.5% in 21 years compared with the same period last year, while domestic market Q3 domestic shipments declined somewhat in 21 years compared with the same period last year. However, considering the low Q3 base in 20 years, the performance of the domestic market has improved somewhat, but demand is still weak. From a sub-regional point of view, shipments in North America in overseas markets declined sharply in the first three quarters of 21 years compared with the same period last year, while Japan, Western Europe and South America performed better. Considering the consumption delay caused by "double Eleven" and "double Twelve" activities in the domestic market, as well as the replacement demand brought about by consumption upgrading, we believe that the domestic sales of Q4 color TV sets will continue to rebound year-on-year in 21 years. In 2021, the price of offline channel in Q3 domestic market began to rebound in September, and the average price of online channel is still in a downward trend.
The demand of the contract factory is under pressure, and the cost pressure is reduced:The global shipments of Q3 in the single quarter of 2001 are in line with the trend of global shipping demand, with a sharp drop of 29.5% compared with the same period last year, but thanks to the peak of panel price Q3, the cost pressure of color TV foundry is expected to slow down significantly.
Investment advice:Affected by factors such as a high base in the same period last year and weak downstream demand, Q3 global color TV shipments fell sharply in 2021 compared with the same period last year, ending four consecutive quarters of positive growth. From the perspective of domestic and export, the overdraft of consumer demand and the rise of shipping prices have led to a large decline in Q3 export shipments, while the decline in domestic shipments has narrowed marginally, and the Q4 rebound trend is expected to continue. Individual stocks recommend laser TV with fast volume, Hisense video, a laser display leader with cutting-edge display technology, and TCL electronics, a color TV leader with an increasing overseas market share.
Risk Tips:Domestic demand rebounded less than expected, raw material prices and shipping prices continued to rise.