According to media reports, recently, the Blue Book of Urban Rental Life in China 2021, jointly compiled by Lilang Research Institute and Xinhuanet, is officially released, and the number of urban housing rentals is expected to exceed 260 million in 2030.
According to the forecast of the Blue Book, with the growth of demand for long-term rental housing brought about by population mobility and the iterative housing concept of tenants and landlords, China's rental population will reach 260 million in 2030, and the size of the housing rental market will be nearly 10 trillion yuan. usher in the "golden decade" of the development of the industry.
Guotai Junan believes that from the perspective of great real estate change, indemnificatory rental housing conforms to the trend of population concentration to urban agglomeration, helping the manufacturing industry to upgrade. Real estate plays the function of credit derivation to accumulate capital, thus promoting the economic development model has come to an end, and the process of rural population entering the city to promote the urbanization rate is also basically over. The future model will be the emergence of urban agglomeration brought about by manufacturing upgrading, population concentration to urban agglomeration, population agglomeration and industrial agglomeration to promote economic transformation and upgrading. Correspondingly, the mode of shed reform to protect indigenous residents and digest real estate inventory has come to an end, while the focus of security has shifted to young new entrants to cities, lowering the threshold for population mobility and complying with the general trend of manufacturing upgrading. It may slow down the demand for housing in the short term, but it will support the demand for housing through population accumulation and labor productivity in the medium to long term.
Guotai Junan estimates that the annual entry of indemnificatory rental housing into the market is about 241 million square meters, driving real estate investment of about 1.18 trillion, or about 8.3% of real estate investment in 2020. If the growth rate of real estate investment falls by 3% in 2022, indemnificatory rental housing is hedged, and even considering the two-year construction cycle, it can still boost real estate investment by 5.1 percentage points, representing an overall growth rate of 2.1%. China Jinmao and Sunac China, who recommend Hong Kong stocks, benefit from Xuhui Holdings Group, A shares recommend Zhongnan Construction, Vanke A, Poly Real Estate, Jindi Group, Merchants Shekou and so on. I love my family.