The intraday shock of the home appliance plate rose on the 16th. As of press time, Subor and Lake Electric rose by the daily limit, Xinbao shares rose by more than 8%, Yitian Intelligence, Martians, Skyworth Digital, Feike Electric Appliances and so on rose by more than 5%. Corworth, Stone Technology, Little Bear Appliances and so on are all strong.
Since the beginning of 2021, the home appliance sector has led the decline in the market. Compared with the previous adjustment, the sector faces more negative factors in 2021, including cost pressure, downward real estate cycle, declining economic climate, and demand for homes in Europe and the United States from a high boom to a downward trend in the second half of the year. At present, the market is worried about the weakening demand in China and the demand uncertainty caused by real estate risks in 2022.
CICC pointed out that the classic era of home appliances has come to an end, and three new trends have been formed: 1) Brand going out to sea is the first major development trend. 2Q20-2Q21, the demand for household appliances is growing rapidly, and the current temporary adjustment is not the end of the trend. With the competitive advantages of the global industrial chain, entrepreneurship and global e-commerce channels, we expect that Chinese household appliance brands (self-owned, mergers and acquisitions) are expected to become mainstream in the world in the next 5-10 years. 2) the long-term trend of emerging categories is determined, and we are mainly optimistic about cleaning appliances (floor sweeper, floor washer, etc.), kitchen electricity (dishwasher, etc.), new display technology (intelligent micro-investment, etc.). 3) with the spillover of industrial competitiveness, we think that there is a greater opportunity for household appliance enterprises to cross the border to the new energy-related industrial chain.
The agency believes that market expectations for home appliance demand are not strong, and there is room for improvement: looking forward to 2022, market expectations for lower costs have been formed; we expect that by the first quarter of 2022, real estate downside risks, Europe and the United States home demand downside risk expectations will also be inflection points. The demand for traditional household appliances is expected to be stable; the demand for emerging categories is expected to be driven by innovation and show S-shaped twists and turns, such as clean appliances, smart micro-investment and outstanding retail performance in the third quarter of 2021. At the same time, the United States is expected to reduce import tariffs on household appliances in the first quarter of 2022, and inflationary pressure will ease slightly; demand in non-Europe and the United States is expected to improve as the epidemic is brought under control.
Open source securities also said that under the expectation of relaxed real estate policy, the demand for home appliances is expected to improve, while negative factors such as raw material prices are improving, and the stock prices have been adjusted more in the early stage, so they are optimistic about the recovery opportunities of white power leaders.