The trend of CO2 refrigerant is gradually clear, and the company's operating efficiency continues to improve.
CO2 heat pump permeability is expected to gradually increase: refrigerant technology path, because CO2 is a natural refrigerant, compared with traditional refrigerants, the core advantages include: 1, environmental advantages; 2, energy-saving advantages, energy-saving advantages compared with traditional refrigerant heat pumps at low temperature; 3, better heating effect at low temperature. With the gradual maturity of the CO2 heat pump air conditioning supply chain, there is still room for cost reduction after the scale effect is reflected, which is expected to accelerate the increase of permeability.
The synergy effect after the acquisition of Zhongyuan is significant, which mainly includes: 1) based on the accumulation of original automation and steam zero products, the expansion of the core parts of Xineng vehicle thermal management system; 2) based on the accumulation of the company's automation end, automatization upgrade of steam zero business to reduce manufacturing cost; 3) R & D platform sharing is conducive to the follow-up development of new thermal management products.
New business + new products + new customers drive the second growth curve
New energy auto parts business: at present, the company's main thermal management system products include pipeline systems and valve products, the company already has pipeline batch production capacity, and has entered the Volkswagen supply chain, due to low temperature and high pressure reasons, the barrier is high; valve products are still in the process of customer certification. With the gradual climbing of Volkswagen ID series model sales and the expansion of new domestic customers, the company is expected to accelerate the release of thermal management products, the expansion of new products of superimposed valves, bicycle value and shipments are expected to accelerate double rise.
Traditional auto parts business: the current core product national six a fuel distributor is steadily increasing. With the overall popularization of the follow-up national six b standard and the release of Audi and other customers, the company's fuel distributor growth is more certain.
With the gradual recovery of the impact of lack of core, the company's fuel distributor is expected to recover synchronously with the industry, and is expected to achieve high growth in the short and medium term.
Automation equipment business: relying on Bosch, United Electronics and other high-quality customers, the company's traditional automotive automation equipment business is expected to maintain steady growth; in the future, the company is expected to improve the automation rate of the zero production line through the advantages of the equipment end, achieve cost reduction and efficiency, and improve the profitability of the automobile zero business.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will achieve operating income of 673 million yuan and net profit of 2.48 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 100-36-23 times. Combined with the average valuation of various segments of the industry, taking into account the high technical barriers to CO2 products and the expansion of new customers + new products in the future, we give the company Xineng car business a certain valuation premium, after segment valuation, the target market value is about 11.9 billion yuan, continue to be bullish, maintain the "buy-A" rating, 6 months target price 45.59 yuan per share.
Risk tips: the prosperity of the automotive industry is not as expected, the volume of new products is not as expected, the production and sales of important customers are not as expected, and the permeability of CO2 heat pump air conditioning system is not as expected.