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Global Equities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones Newswires ·  Nov 15, 2021 08:30

The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1924 ET - HT&E's revenue target following its regional-radio acquisition looks achievable to Credit Suisse. The investment bank thinks the key to value accretion from the expanded media group's A$307.5 million acquisition is the ability to realize management's target of A$20 million in revenue synergies. Regional revenue at rival Southern Cross suggest this is reasonable. Yet a valuation uplift from the deal is offset by a marginal decline in the valuation of HT&E's metropolitan radio broadcasting assets. Credit Suisse maintains an outperform rating and A$2.50 target price on the stock, which is down 0.8% at A$1.90. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

1924 ET - Japan's Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.6% at 29791.89, led by banks and electronics stocks, as recent earnings point to a steady recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Japan Post Bank is up 6.2% after it raises its fiscal-year net profit guidance, citing greater returns from private-equity funds. Investors are focusing on the remaining results from a few big-cap companies such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Recruit Holdings due later in the day as the earnings season comes to an end. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

1919 ET - South Korea's Kospi is 0.6% higher at 2985.23 in early trade, led by biotech, electronics and shipbuilding stocks. Foreign and retail investors remain net buyers. Index heavyweight Samsung Electronics is 0.7% higher. Biotech company Celltrion Inc. jumps 5.6% after the European Commission granted its Covid-19 antibody treatment marketing approval. Its local peer Samsung Biologics gains 1.9%. Memory-chip maker SK Hynix advances 3.3%. Apple supplier and camera-module maker LG Innotek climbs 4.1%. Asiana Airlines adds 2.1% ahead of its 3Q earnings release later in the day. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering is 1.4% higher.(kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

1909 ET - Ai-Media Technologies' short-term investments appear to have potential to materially expand the captioning provider's market presence, profits and purpose, Morgans says. The broker says growth of the software-as-a-service side of the business will likely result in a short-term revenue dip, since automated captioning is cheaper than premium captioning. Yet, it looks through the immediate impact and sees a large opportunity for Ai-Media's iCap business in underserviced markets in emerging countries such as India. It keeps an add rating and A$1.46 target price on the stock. Shares are 4.6% lower at A$0.93. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

1844 ET - Japanese stocks may be supported by the prospects of earnings recovery, while concerns continue about higher costs of raw materials. Nikkei futures open up 195 points at 29790 on the SGX. USD/JPY is at 114.01 compared with 114.20 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Recruit Holdings are scheduled to report their earnings results later in the day as the season comes to an end. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 1.1% higher at 29609.97 on Friday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)

1754 ET - UBS thinks the risk that Oil Search shareholders will vote down a proposed tie-up with Santos is relatively low, despite independent expert Grant Samuel finding the merger ratio isn't reflective of the relative contribution by Oil Search. Grant Samuel estimates Oil Search brings about 43-44% of value to the combined entity, whereas 38.5% has been agreed between the two companies. What may motivate shareholders to approve the deal is "strong cross ownership of Oil Search and Santos," UBS says. "The 0.6275 Santos shares that Oil Search shareholders will receive implies an Oil Search valuation of A$6.02/share, based on our A$9.60/share Santos valuation," UBS says. Its new price target is A$5.65/share, up 13% on before. Oil Search ended last week at A$4.29. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1743 ET - Origin Energy is well positioned to funnel spare cash more aggressively toward growth projects or ramp up returns for shareholders, UBS says. It expects Origin's net debt-to-adjusted Ebitda to fall to 1.4 times compared to company target of 2-3 times, driven by higher cash distributions from the Australia Pacific LNG project. "This should allow Origin to target distributions at the top end of its dividend policy (30-50% of free cash flow), pursue growth and/or capital management (possibly following 2021-22 summer and finalising coal contractsfor Eraring power station)," UBS says. The bank was also heartened by another energy retailer in the U.K., EDF Energy signing a licensing agreement with Octopus Energy. That supports Origin's 20% investment in Octopus, it says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1743 ET - Xero's home markets are approaching saturation but the cloud accounting provider's U.S. focus looks over-optimistic, Macquarie says. The investment bank thinks Australia and New Zealand subscriber growth will moderate over the next few years as a result of high levels of penetration. Xero management see U.S. investment as a priority due to the size of the market opportunity, but Macquarie thinks it will have limited success against Intuit's QuickBooks. It points out that Intuit's US$12 billion purchase of Mailchimp dwarfs Xero's US$300 million combined spend on four acquisitions. Macquarie keeps an underperform rating and A$130.00 target price on the stock, which last traded at A$142.26. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

1736 ET - UBS's more bullish view of the oil-price outlook drives 2-66% increases in its EPS forecasts across FY 2021-2023, although the bank is less positive on production. UBS now expects Brent crude--the global oil price benchmark--to average $81/bbl next year and $80/bbl in 2023, up from prior forecasts of $68.5/bbl and $60/bbl, respectively. However, the bank cuts 2022-23 production "by 3-6%, now expecting a six-month delay in start-up of Pluto gas acceleration into the North West Shelf (mid-2022) as well as delaying first oil from Sangomar 6 months to late 2023." UBS retains a buy call on Woodside, lifting its price target by 8.9% to A$26.90/share. Woodside ended last week at A$22.25. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1727 ET - There's greater risk now of the Santos-Oil Search merger failing the planned shareholder vote next month. That's the conclusion of JPMorgan following the release of independent expert Grant Samuel's report into the deal. JPMorgan highlights two controversial elements of that report: firstly that Oil Search's shareholders aren't being fully compensated with the current terms and secondly that Oil Search has challenges in funding its growth. "While we see benefits to both companies in the transaction (notably merger synergies and the ability to fund growth) we see greater downside risk with Oil Search should shareholders ultimately vote against the transaction," JPMorgan says. What may imply a fair price is the absence of rival bidders since the deal was announced, it adds. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1639 ET - RBA Governor Philip Lowe's speech Tuesday on inflation trends will set the tone for trading Australia's financial markets this week. With core inflation now back within the bank's desired 2-3% range, there's scope for Lowe to further develop the bank's narrative given there is only one policy meeting between now and February. It might have been better if the speech wasn't happening prior to the release of 3Q wages on Wednesday. Lowe will remain cautious overall, but also set the stage for further winding back of the bank's bond buying program in February. His comments on current market pricing for interest rate increases in 2022 will be critical. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

1631 ET - Australian stock futures are pointing to a flat open for the S&P/ASX 200. ASX futures are down by less than 0.1%, suggesting an uncertain open for the benchmark, which rose 0.8% on Friday but fell 0.2% over the past week. U.S. stocks are providing a similar lead, paring weekly losses with gains. The S&P 500 added 0.7% on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.0%. Ahead of the ASX open, Incitec Pivot's annual profit rose 21% to A$149.1 million. National Australia Bank, the benchmark's fourth largest company by market capitalization, will trade ex-dividend. (stuart.condie@wsj.com; @StuartLCondie)

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