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爱仕达(002403):成本端压力较大 盈利能力恢复偏慢

Estelle (002403): greater cost-side pressure and slow profitability recovery

中金公司 ·  Aug 30, 2021 00:00

1H21 performance is lower than we expected.

The company announced 1H21 results: revenue 1.565 billion yuan, year-on-year + 38.6%; return to the mother net profit of 20.95 million yuan, year-on-year-85.4%. Corresponding to 2Q21 income 751 million yuan, year-on-year + 13.6%; return to the mother net profit of 4.24 million yuan,-97.6% year-on-year. The company's performance was lower than we expected, mainly under the pressure of rising prices of raw materials, although the company's revenue grew better than the same period last year, but the profitability was lower than we expected.

Domestic sales are relatively weak, while export sales drive revenue growth. 1) 1H21's export and domestic sales revenue is + 75.9% and + 18.7% respectively compared with the same period last year, compared with 1H19 + 13.20% and-14.40% respectively, but the domestic sales income has not fully recovered to the level of the same period in 2019. 2) the traditional dominant channel of the company's domestic sales is Shang Chao, and 1H20 has declined more under the influence of the epidemic. Under the low base, the business income of cooking utensils and small household appliances of 1H21 company was + 28.2% and + 93.6% respectively compared with the same period last year, but compared with 1H19-7.5% and + 13.3% respectively, the recovery of cooking utensils business was slower. 3) in addition, the revenue of the company's robot business has also recovered significantly, with revenue reaching 144 million yuan compared with the same period last year, which is the same as that of 1H19.

Financial analysis: 1) affected by the rise in raw material prices and the further increase in the proportion of exports, 1H21's comprehensive gross profit margin fell by 4.6ppt, while that of cooking utensils, small household appliances and robots fell by 2.9ppt, 5.7ppt and 5.7ppt respectively compared with the same period last year. 2) the sales expense of 1H21 company is-21% compared with the same period last year, and the sales expense rate is reduced by 11.2 ppt; the management expense is + 15% year on year, and the management expense rate is reduced by 1.4ppt. 3) the net profit of 1H21 Company after deducting non-profit is-5.26 million yuan, of which 2Q21 has a loss of 16.98 million yuan. Although the overall loss is significantly narrowed compared with 1H20, 2Q21 once again showed a profit loss after deduction, reflecting that the company's profitability is still fragile in the period of rapid rise in raw material prices.

Development trend

1) the company takes the robot business as the key development direction, and it is still in the period of cultivation. The loss gap of 1H21 subsidiaries Qianjiang Robot and Estella Robot has narrowed, and we expect the company's robotics business to remain at a loss in the short term. 2) the sales of domestic cooking utensils is the core business of the company, and the adjustment of the channel structure of cooking utensils obviously lags behind. In the first half of the year, the company opened up O20 business and continued to strengthen the layout of emerging e-commerce and content e-commerce, and the market performance needs to be improved. 3) the company's ODM/OEM business is expected to continue to improve, but the overall profitability is under pressure because the gross profit margin of export is lower than that of domestic sales.

Profit forecast and valuation

Due to the slow recovery of the company's profitability, we lowered our 2021 net profit forecast by 24% to $74 million, maintaining the 2022 profit forecast. The current share price corresponds to 34.0 times 2021 / 2022 / 22.2 times earnings. To maintain a neutral rating, due to maintaining the 2022 earnings forecast, we maintain the target price of 7.37 yuan, corresponding to 22.7 times 2022 price-to-earnings ratio, which has 2% upside compared to the current stock price.

Risk

The risk of fluctuating market demand and the risk of rising prices of raw materials.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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