Conclusion: the company's 21Q1-Q3 revenue and return net profit are 2.57 billion yuan and 230 million yuan respectively, an increase of 18.7%.
16.8% pint 21Q3 single-quarter revenue and return net profit was 780 million yuan and 79.49 million yuan, an increase of 4.3% .0.9%, slightly lower than expected. Considering that the increase in material price puts pressure on the gross profit margin of manufacturing business, the gross profit margin of manufacturing business is reduced by 2021-23 EPS to 0.32 yuan, 0.46 yuan and 0.14 yuan, respectively, with a comparable valuation of 65.5 times PE in 2021, maintaining the target price of 20.96 yuan and maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Gross profit margin of 21Q1-Q3 manufacturing department is under pressure, Q4 price increase is expected to improve. The company adopts the distribution system, the 21Q1-Q3 price adjustment is cautious, and the gross profit margin of the 21H1 compressor is 24.2% (- 2.6%). We judge that Q4 company is expected to increase the price of products such as compressors. If the 20-year gross profit margin is anchored under the cost increase method, the annual gross profit margin for 21 years is expected to rise to about 25%.
Air compressor maintenance is expected to rise in volume and price, and LMF is expected to reverse losses throughout the year under the improvement of the epidemic. At present, the original purchase rate of the company's distributor maintenance accessories is less than 10%, Atlas is 50%, and the gross profit margin is more than 50%.
The company has pre-adopted technical and incentive measures to improve the original factory procurement rate of distributors' spare parts, and maintenance is expected to increase both in quantity and price. LMF service revenue accounts for 30%, which is greatly affected by the epidemic, and the proportion of Q4 revenue is high (nearly 50% for 20 years). When the epidemic improves, it is expected to reverse losses for the whole year.
New ORC equipment to improve power generation efficiency, 22 years COD power station conservative about 70MW. The company found that the wellhead temperature was still high after power generation, and considered adding one ORC to each of the two phase SMGP power stations. If the combined power generation of the two phases of SMGP exceeds the 90Mw, the net profit rate of electricity sales is expected to increase from 36% to about 40%. In 2022, the COD power station is conservatively estimated to be about 70MW, mainly including the SMGP Phase III 45MW StarPeak 15.5MW and the Hungarian 5MW project.
Risk hint: the progress of the new project COD slows down
