In the face of round after round of COVID-19 epidemic and the constantly mutating virus, in addition to developing better preventive vaccines, COVID-19 's specific treatment is also a key breakthrough. Nearly two years after the emergence of COVID-19, new progress has been made in oral drugs against novel coronavirus, and related drug research and development has also begun to enter the harvest period.
At present, the tourism industry is deeply affected by the epidemic crisis, and many airlines, hotels, cruise ship operators, travel agencies and car rental companies are struggling in crisis management. Now the advent of COVID-19 's oral medicine will enhance the expectation that the world will work together to get out of the epidemic, and the recovery of tourism travel after the crisis is bound to come. At that time, the leading companies in the industry are expected to regroup.
COVID-19 made new progress in oral specific drugs
The global COVID-19 pandemic has not slowed down, and novel coronavirus is still accelerating the spread of mutation. Just like the research and development of vaccines, the competition for the development of oral drugs for COVID-19 has been carried out in a low profile around the world. In April this year, the British government set up an "antiviral task force" with the goal of developing at least two antiviral drugs this year, which people can take at home after COVID-19 has tested positive. FDA previously approved a number of drugs specifically against novel coronavirus, mainly three COVID-19 neutralizing antibodies. At the same time, the US government has invested 3 billion US dollars to speed up the discovery, development and manufacture of drugs against novel coronavirus.
In addition, the research and development of COVID-19 therapeutic drugs from a number of Chinese pharmaceutical companies are progressing smoothly. At present, Sinopharmaceutical Group China Biology is intensively developing two of the world's first COVID-19 treatment specific drugs-new crown specific immunoglobulins and anti-novel coronavirus monoclonal antibodies. Among them, the new crown-specific immunoglobulin has obtained domestic and foreign clinical trial approval documents issued by the State Drug Administration and the Ministry of Health and Prevention of the United Arab Emirates, and related clinical trials have also been carried out. Recently, Tengsheng Bo Pharmaceuticals has also submitted its new crown and antibody combination therapy BRII-196/BRII-198 emergency use authorization application to the US Food and Drug Administration. It is reported that the State Drug Administration of China and the Department of Health of Hong Kong, China have approved applications for clinical trials of new drugs for this combination therapy. Tengshengbo has also carried out further research in China and is evaluating the effectiveness of lower-dose combination therapy in the second phase of the study.
The US drug company Merck announced that its small molecule drug Molnupiravir has been approved by the FDA in the UK on November 4, becoming the first oral drug approved to treat mild to moderate COVID-19 infection in adults. Only a day later, Pfizer Inc came out another good news about oral anti-COVID-19 medicine, which was even more surprising. Pfizer Inc announced on its website that its oral drug Paxlovid for COVID-19 reduces the hospitalization or mortality of COVID-19 's non-hospitalized patients by 89% compared with placebo. This data is comparable to or even better than the new crown neutralizing antibody, significantly better than Merck & Co Inc's Molnupiravir. Pfizer Inc plans to seek approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the drug this month, and if approved, Pfizer Inc may deliver it this year. It is expected that more than 180000 oral medicines will be produced by the end of 2021 and 50 million by the end of next year.
It is reported that oral drugs can be used for pre-exposure or post-exposure prevention, reduce the potential spread of virus / infection, and treat patients with lack of immune response. at the same time, oral drugs are more convenient, more accessible, less productive and lower social costs than antibody drugs. As soon as the news came out, Pfizer Inc rose more than 11% in the US stock market last Friday. Beneficiary sectors such as tourism also heard the news. Royal Caribbean Cruise, Melco Resorts and Entertainment Ltd and Delta Airlines rose by more than 8%, Wynn Resorts also rose by more than 6%, while stocks of COVID-19 vaccine, neutralization antibody and testing related sectors fell.
The impact of the epidemic on the performance of tourism hotels is better than expected.
The recent outbreaks of local agglomeration caused by overseas imports show that China's "external defense import, internal defense rebound" is still facing greater pressure.
Affected by the continuous spread of the epidemic, outbound travel is still in a state of suspension, domestic tourism has not yet fully recovered, and travel is still dominated by short trips. According to statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the China Tourism Academy, in 2020, the number of domestic tourists and income decreased by 52.1% and 61.1% respectively compared with the same period last year, the number of inbound tourists and income decreased by 81.3% and 87.1% respectively, and the number of outbound tourists decreased by 86.9%.
In the third quarter of this year, the domestic epidemic broke out in many places, and the epidemic prevention and control measures in some provinces and cities were strengthened, which had a great impact on the business of listed tourism companies. The tourism sector of the A-share market was continuously depressed by the domestic epidemic.
From the third quarterly report of 2021 disclosed by the Tourism Unit, we can see that the impact of the epidemic on the performance of the tourism sector has exceeded expectations. According to the data, Zhongxin Travel's three-quarter report for 2021 showed a net profit loss of 205 million yuan, while Caesar's three-quarter report showed a net profit loss of 259 million yuan. CYTS realized a net profit of 37.2613 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 129.1% over the same period last year, but the net profit of "Koufei" lost 4.4269 million yuan. Similarly, the three quarterly reports of Huangshan Tourism also showed a loss of 708000 yuan in net profit deducted from non-return. In addition, Guilin Tourism lost 97.6649 million yuan in the first three quarters, Changbai Mountain lost 26.7097 million yuan in the first three quarters, Sante Cableway lost 7.0472 million yuan, Yunnan Tourism lost 12.9044 million yuan, Xi'an Tourism lost 33.7342 million yuan, Zhangjiajie lost 58.415 million yuan. It is worth noting that the decline in performance in the third quarter of this year is mainly due to the emergence of the epidemic in the summer. For example, because of the outbreak of the epidemic in Nanjing in July, some provinces and cities in Wuzhen have strengthened the prevention and control measures of the epidemic, which has greatly affected the tourism business of the scenic area.
Shares of civil aviation, airports, tourism and hotels have benefited greatly.
Guoxin Securities Research report said that the universal vaccination of COVID-19 vaccine and the advent of overseas specific drugs will gradually approach the pace of liberalization in the future. The introduction of domestic civil aviation capacity has been substantially tightened for two consecutive years, and it will remain low for some time in the future, creating prerequisites for the reversal of supply and demand, demand resilience is highlighted, and freight rate reform amplifies price elasticity. it is optimistic that one day when the domestic epidemic prevention policy is relaxed and the country is liberalized, airlines' freight rates and performance are expected. Western Securities also believes that hotels, scenic spots, outbound travel and catering sectors will directly benefit from the further recovery of demand brought about by the end of consumption scene restrictions, taking into account that the hotel industry has more time and space for downward cycle adjustment. And it also has the logic of supply optimization (the hotel chain rate has increased from 26% in 2019 to 31% in 2020). The hotel industry is expected to show more resilience in the recovery next year.
In the secondary market, it was stimulated by the news that Pfizer Inc announced that COVID-19 was taking medicine orally. A-share airport shipping, hotels and catering, scenic spots and tourism and other sectors rose against the trend. Among them, Caesar Travel (000796.CN) and first Travel Hotel (600258.CN) rose by the daily limit, Jinjiang Hotel (600754.CN) rose nearly 8%, Songcheng Performing Arts (300144.CN), Zhongxin Tourism (002707.CN), Changbai Mountain (603099.CN) rose more than 6%, Lingnan Holdings (000524.CN), Junting Hotel (301073.CN), Huangshan Tourism (600054.CN) and so on rose. Civil aviation sector also rose, Shanghai Airport (600009.CN), Baiyun Airport (600004.CN) hit the limit, Air China Limited (601111.CN), China Southern Airlines Company (600029.CN) rose more than 7%, auspicious Airlines (603885.CN) rose more than 5%, Spring and Autumn Airlines (601021.CN), China Eastern Airlines (600115.CN), Shenzhen Airport (000089.CN) and so on also rose sharply. In addition, Hong Kong tourism concept stocks are also strong, with Fosun Tourism Culture (01992.HK) up more than 15%, Trip.com (09961.HK) and Genting Hong Kong (000678.HK) up more than 7%, Tongcheng Yilong (000780.HK) up more than 5%, and Hong Kong China Travel Service (00308.HK) up more than 3%.