In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 58.306 billion yuan, + 54.41% compared with the same period last year, realized net profit of 2.415 billion yuan, + 1517.74% compared with the same period last year, and deducted non-return net profit of 874 million yuan, + 1317.27% compared with the same period last year.
Among them, Q3 realized revenue of 19.417 billion yuan, + 49.85% compared with the same period last year; realized net profit of 264 million yuan, + 132.06% compared with the same period last year; and deducted non-return net profit of 265 million, an increase of 275 million over the same period last year. The net cash flow of operating activities in the first three quarters was-2.04 billion, a sharp decrease compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the appropriate increase in inventory and the expansion of sales to seize market share while ensuring the optimization of turnover.
The double control of energy consumption and the local epidemic situation did not change the growth trend, and chlorobenzene, resin and rubber products performed well.
In the first three quarters, the company earned 1.354 billion yuan from chlorobenzene products, + 118% from the same period last year, 237 million yuan from chlor-alkali products, + 11% from the same period last year, 2.925 billion yuan from resin products, + 113% from the same period last year, and 2.842 billion yuan from rubber antioxidants, + 85% from the same period last year. The company's sales revenue of its main products in the third quarter was 2.658 billion yuan, + 80.3% year-on-year and + 6.0% month-on-month. Among them, chlorobenzene products sold 58400 tons, year-on-year + 13.8%, month-on-month + 19.0%, price 8873 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 98.3%, month-on-month + 3.9%; chlor-alkali products sold 10400 tons, price 7103 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 482.4%, month-on-month + 523.5%; resin products sold 38600 tons, price 27130 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 78.9%, month-on-month + 15.7% Rubber antioxidant sales of 43300 tons, year-on-year + 24.7%, the price of 23562 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 52.2%, month-on-month + 12.6%, product prices have increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
The surge in commodities may affect corporate profits in the short term, and a recovery is expected in the future. The Q3 gross profit margin of the company is 7.83%, and the net profit rate is 2.07%, which is lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the sharp increase in the price of the company's main raw materials in the first three quarters. The price of pure benzene is 6249 yuan / ton, + 58% year-on-year, coal price 717 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 43%, acetone price 7044 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 21%.
The C 3 project is progressing steadily and is about to enter the production period step by step. By the end of the third quarter, the company was under construction of 10.13 billion yuan, + 91.29% compared with the same period last year, and fixed assets + 22.11%, mainly due to the acceleration of the company's C 3 project, which will be put into production next year, with sustainable growth.
Maintain earnings forecasts and maintain "buy" ratings. We estimate that the operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 570.77 billion yuan and 51.307 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 2.547 billion yuan (1.542 billion yuan in non-recurring profit and loss in 2021), and the corresponding PE will be 10max, 16x10X respectively, and the net profit will be 2.547 billion yuan (2021 yuan in non-recurring profit and loss). It is recommended that the 2022 PE is 25X, corresponding to a market capitalization of 39.91 billion yuan, and a six-month target price of 14.43 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk hint: the risk of demand decline, the promotion of new products is not as expected, and capacity expansion is not as expected.