3Q21 homing net profit-85% compared with the same period last year
Guanghui Automobile announced its 3Q21 operation on October 27: operating income of 37.21 billion yuan, year-on-year-11.7%, return to the mother net profit of 120 million yuan,-85% year-on-year. We believe that the company's weak 3Q21 performance is mainly due to the decline in new car sales caused by chip supply shortages and the reduction in mainframe factory rebates. From January to September, the company's operating income was 121.25 billion yuan, + 12% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 1.63 billion yuan, + 24% compared with the same period last year. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 0.31 won 0.39pm 0.47 yuan respectively. Comparable Wind unanimously expects the average PE to be 14x in 2022. Considering that the company's luxury car business accounts for a relatively low proportion, we give the company a target price of 4.29 yuan and maintain a "buy" rating based on 11x 2022E PE.
3Q21 operating under pressure
According to the announcement, 3Q21's operating income was 37.21 billion yuan,-11.7% compared with the same period last year, and its gross profit margin was 8.5% (2Q21:
10.2% Equity 3Q20Ranger 8.5%), sales expense rate 3.4% (2Q21VOD 3.3% Port3Q20Rod 2.8%), Administrative expense rate 1.8% (2Q21VOV 1.5% Equity 3Q20VR 1.5%), Financial expense rate 1.9% (2Q21:
1.5% Landscap 3Q20Rom 1.8%). The net interest rate is 0.5% (2Q21VOR 2.3% BTX 3Q20PUR 2.1%). 3Q21's operating performance is under pressure, which we believe is mainly due to a decline in new car sales and revenue as a result of a shortage of chips, as well as a decrease in mainframe factory rebates, resulting in pressure on gross margin and an increase in expense rates during the period.
Looking ahead to 4Q21, we expect the company's operations to improve as the chip supply margin improves.
Actively layout the related business of new energy vehicles
According to the company's disclosure on the Shanghai Stock E interactive platform on September 30, the company actively laid out the related business of new energy vehicles, and established a joint venture "Guanghui" with the State Grid at the end of 2019. After two years of exploration, the company has gradually improved the business chain of new energy vehicle sales, service, charging pile service and so on. At present, the company has signed strategic cooperation agreements with polar fox, polar star and other automobile brands. We believe that the cooperation with new energy vehicle enterprises is expected to bring new development momentum to Guanghui Automobile.
Maintain a "buy" rating
Taking into account the company's 3Q21 operation, we lowered the company's revenue forecast for 2021-2023 by 3% to 1679, 1759, 1840 billion yuan, the gross profit forecast, respectively, by 0.5/0.5/0.6pct to 9.3%, 9.7%, 10.1%, and the home net profit forecast, by 20%, 18%, 17%, and 24.8, respectively, to 3.94 billion, 3.84 billion, and the net profit forecast is reduced by 20%, 18%, 17%, respectively. Comparable Wind unanimously expects the average PE to be 14x (the previous 2021E 15.6x) in 2022. Considering the relatively low proportion of the company's luxury car business, we give the company a target price of 4.29yuan (the previous 2021E 12x) based on 11x 2022E PE (the previous 2021E 12x), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: car demand is lower than expected; profitability is lower than expected.