The sharp rise in coal prices puts pressure on short-term performance.
Changyuan Electric Power released three quarterly results: the revenue in the first three quarters was 8.95 billion yuan, + 26% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 280 million yuan,-68% compared with the same period last year, which was in line with the performance forecast (2.2-286 million yuan). The corresponding 21Q3 revenue was 3.02 billion yuan, + 8.5% year-on-year, and the net profit was 23 million yuan,-96% year-on-year, with a loss of 123 million yuan after deducting non-profit. With the deregulation of coal prices and electricity prices, the medium-and long-term performance is expected to pick up, but the coal price center is higher than the same period last year, and short-term performance is under pressure. The profit forecast is revised downwards, and the estimated 21-23 net profit is 4.1pm 7.6 / 830 million yuan (the previous value is 6.0pm 870m), and the BPS is 4.35pm 4.61pm 4.86 yuan. The average value of comparable PB of thermal power / new energy generation in 21 years is 0.98 Universe 2.76x (Wind consensus expectation). The "14th five-year Plan" company makes every effort to promote the construction of clean energy in Fengfengshui, and its value is expected to be revalued. It gives the 21-year target 2.3xPB, reduces the target price to 10.00 yuan per share (previous value: 10.18 yuan per share), and maintains the overweight rating.
Q3 power generation traced back to the same period last year + 12% Q4 power growth may narrow 21Q3's completed power generation from + 118% year-on-year to 7.904 billion kWh. Regardless of Hubei power consolidation factor, power generation is + 12% year-on-year to 4.037 billion kWh. The electricity growth is mainly due to the increase in electricity consumption of the whole society in Hubei Province brought about by the recovery of economic activity (52% 16% 11% in Q1-3 single quarter, respectively). Given the high base in the same period last year, we expect 21Q4 power growth to slow further compared with the same period last year.
The high operation of coal prices affects the profitability of thermal power plants, and the price control policy is expected to be good for the company's thermal power plants to significantly increase the unit price of comprehensive standard coal (21H1 is 847.2 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 152.4 yuan / ton, the average price of Q3 coal industry continues to rise, and it is expected that the unit price of standard coal will remain at a high level throughout the year). Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin fell 16.7/10.9pct to-2.0% year-on-year / month-on-month. From September to October, the regulatory authorities issued a series of policies on coal price regulation and deregulation of market-oriented electricity prices, which we believe are expected to be good for the company's Q4 operation and partially alleviate the pressure of thermal power losses.
Downgrade profit forecast and maintain overweight rating
With the deregulation of coal prices and electricity prices, the medium-and long-term performance is expected to pick up, but the coal price center is higher than the same period last year, and short-term performance is under pressure. The profit forecast is revised downwards, and the estimated 21-23 net profit for 21-23 years is 4.1x76xb RMB 830m (the previous value is 6.0pm 870m RMB), and the BPS is 4.35pm 4.61pm 4.86 yuan. The company's current stock price corresponds to 21-year 1.9xPB, which is between the average PB of thermal power plant (0.98x) and the average PB of new energy generation (2.76x) (Wind consensus expectation). We think it reflects the optimistic expectation of the market for the company's positive transformation of clean energy. The value of the company is expected to be revalued and will be given a 21-year 2.3xPB with a target price of 10.00 yuan per share (previous value: 10.18 yuan per share, based on 21-year 2.3xPB).
Risk tips: coal prices rose sharply; electricity prices adjusted sharply; power recovery was not as good as expected.
